Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attend a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Istanbul, Turkey, May 12, 2023.
Dila Rasenkaya | Reuters
Turkey appears to be heading to a presidential runoff, with the parties of Tayyip Erdogan and opposition rival Kemal Kildaroglu taking the lead. However, sources in both camps concede they may not pass the 50% threshold to win outright.
Early results gave Erdogan a comfortable lead, but as the count continued, his advantage was eroded and a runoff on May 28 beckoned.
Both sides have dismissed the other’s allegations and no official results have been released. Ankara’s opposition mayor, Mansur Yavas, said a count of his party’s votes showed Kilidaroglu leading with 47.42 percent of the vote, compared with Erdogan’s 46.48 percent.
Opinion polls before the election showed Kilidaroglu, who leads the six-party coalition, with a slight lead, with two polls on Friday showing him above the 50 percent threshold.
“There seems to be no winner in the first round. However, our data suggests that Kilicdaroglu will lead,” said a senior opposition coalition official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Erdogan had 50.83 percent of nearly 75 percent of the ballot boxes, while Kilidaroglu had 43.36 percent, Turkish media said, citing state agency Anadolu.
Sunday’s vote is one of the most important elections in the country’s 100-year history, which could end Erdogan’s two decades of authoritarian rule and reverberate outside Turkey.
The presidential election will determine not only who leads Turkey, a NATO member of 85 million people, but also how it is governed, the direction of its economy amid a severe cost-of-living crisis and the shape of its foreign policy.
Western capitals, the Middle East, NATO and Moscow are closely watching the election, which also includes parliamentary elections.
The defeat of Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most important allies, could upset the Kremlin but upset the Biden administration and much of Europe and the Middle East that have had trouble with Erdogan. Leaders are relieved.
The longest-serving leader has turned the NATO member and Europe’s second-largest country into a global player, modernizing it with major projects such as new bridges, hospitals and airports and building a sought-after foreign military industry.
But his erratic low-interest-rate economic policies have unleashed a rising cost-of-living crisis and inflation, making him a prey to voter rage.
Voters were further frustrated by his government’s slow response to a devastating earthquake in southeastern Turkey that killed 50,000 people.
Kilicdaroglu has promised to set Turkey on a new path by restoring democracy after years of state repression, restoring orthodox economic policies, empowering institutions that have lost autonomy under Erdogan’s tight grip and rebuilding fragile ties with the West.
Thousands of political prisoners and activists, including high-level figures such as Kurdish leader Serah al-Din de Mirtas and philanthropist Osman Kavala, could be released if the opposition wins.
polarized politics
“I think these elections are a choice between democracy and dictatorship,” Ahmet Kalkan, 64, said in Istanbul, when he voted for Kilicdaroglu, echoing criticism from critics. They fear that if Erdogan wins, his rule will become more authoritarian.
“I chose democracy, and I want my country to choose democracy,” said Kalkan, a retired health sector worker.
Erdogan, 69, a veteran of more than a dozen electoral victories, said he respected democracy and denied he was a dictator.
Mehmet Akif Kahraman, who also voted in Istanbul, illustrated how the president still has support, saying Erdogan still represents the future even after two decades in power.
“God willing, Turkey will be a world leader,” he said.
The parliamentary vote was a contest between Erdogan’s Awami League, which includes the Islamist-entrenched AK Party (AKP) and the nationalist MHP, and Kilicdaroglu’s National Coalition of six opposition parties, which includes his secularist The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the party established by the Turkish government founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
HaberTurk put Erdogan’s coalition on 52 percent of the parliamentary vote and the opposition alliance on 33 percent after 62 percent of ballot boxes were counted.
change or continuation
Erdogan is a powerful orator and a master campaigner who has pulled out all the stops on the campaign trail. He has won fierce loyalty from devout Turks who once felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey, and his political career has survived an attempted coup in 2016 and numerous corruption scandals.
However, if the Turks do oust Erdogan, it will be largely because they see their prosperity and ability to meet basic needs diminished, with inflation hitting 85% in October 2022 and the lira currency collapsing.
Erdogan has tightly controlled much of Turkey’s institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. In its World Report 2022, Human Rights Watch said Erdogan’s government had set back Turkey’s human rights record by decades.
Kurdish voters, who make up 15% to 20% of the electorate, will play a crucial role, and the National Alliance alone is unlikely to secure a parliamentary majority.
The pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition coalition but has strongly opposed Erdogan following a crackdown on its members in recent years.