Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during a signing ceremony after talks in the Kremlin in Moscow, March 21, 2023.
Vladimir Astapkovich | AFP | Getty Images
Political analysts said China faced a “daunting” challenge in trying to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, as it torn between appearing neutral enough to win Kiev’s trust and making sure no deal would be harmed Walking a diplomatic tightrope its allies in Moscow.
Beijing – which has sent representatives to Ukraine, Russia and several European countries this week to lay the groundwork for peace talks – has a special vested interest in Moscow, which does not appear to be “defeated” in any solution because it That could backfire in Beijing, analysts say.
“A total defeat of Russia is not in China’s interest, especially if it leads to the ouster of (President Vladimir) Putin,” Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the U.S.-based German Marshall Fund (GMF), told Reuters on Tuesday. CNBC said.
“Russia is an increasingly important partner of (Chinese President) Xi Jinping. No other country can help weaken America’s leadership in the world and revise the international order,” she added.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping leave after a reception following talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, March 21, 2023.
Pavel Birkin | AFP | Getty Images
China’s foreign ministry said China was stepping up efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, with Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, visiting Europe this week for talks on a “political solution to the Ukraine crisis”.
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is about to enter a new phase of the conflict after months of attrition, with Western-backed Ukraine expected to launch a massive counteroffensive to retake the country’s occupied territories in the east and south.
China is widely seen as supporting Russia during the war, refusing to condemn the invasion and pledging to deepen strategic cooperation with the country, although most analysts view Moscow as a secondary partner in the relationship.
One of the main factors linking China and Moscow is a shared and deep-rooted antipathy and distrust of the West, both of which are critical of American dominance in global affairs.
Against this backdrop, Moscow and Beijing have maintained a markedly close relationship throughout the war, with Xi and Putin making numerous phone calls and state visits in March. In contrast, Xi Jinping only had his first phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in April.
On April 26, 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone in Kiev.
Press Service of the President of Ukraine | Reuters
China undoubtedly wants the war to end, viewing it as an unwelcome crisis affecting the global economy. But it also contains potential political dangers for China, as a defeated Russia is considered highly vulnerable to political instability, chaos and even regime change.
Therefore, China’s move to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine is not seen as altruistic, but self-interested. This interest extends to ensuring that its neighbor and ally Russia does not look humiliated and “failed” in any peace deal with Ukraine. Analysts pointed out that by managing the negotiation process, China can see that it is not delivering.
Etienne Soula, a China-focused research analyst at GMF’s Alliance for Safeguarding Democracy, told CNBC that “any Chinese mediation effort will definitely have a significant face-saving component,” adding that “Beijing may try to Help Russia make as few concessions as possible while convincing Ukrainians and their Western backers to reconcile.”
Crucially for China, a humiliated Russia will adversely affect its ambitions to challenge Western hegemony.
“China’s narrative of its own rise as the center of global governance hinges on the matching view that Western democracies, especially the United States, are in irreversible decline,” Sura said.
“For these countries to defeat one of the world’s largest dictatorships, a member of the Security Council with nuclear weapons, through proxies, without even a boot on the ground, would be a huge setback for China’s attempt to tell the world’s future story”
CNBC has reached out to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for a response but has not yet heard back.
“Formidable challenge”
China’s latest foray into global diplomacy was in It recently managed to broker a deal between old Middle Eastern foes Saudi Arabia and Iran, agreeing to restore diplomatic ties and reopen embassies in each other’s countries.
Analysts said it would be much harder to replicate that achievement between Ukraine and Russia, noting that Beijing would have a lot of trouble convincing the two sides to reach a deal because there is so much animosity between them and the stakes are high.
Kharkov, Ukraine, February 16, 2023. A cemetery where dead Ukrainian soldiers are buried, including Gennady Kovshyk, a soldier of the 92nd Independent Mechanized Brigade.
Sophie Abock | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Ukraine says any solution to the war must center on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories and the restoration of its territorial sovereignty, including the return of four regions Russia announced it had annexed last September, as well as Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
Meanwhile, Russia has demanded that Kiev recognize Russian sovereignty over the dependent region and accept the independence of the pro-Russian separatist “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Moscow also wants to see a “demilitarized” Ukraine, including assurances that it will never join NATO.
While there may be some leeway in the negotiations; Ukraine, for example, said it could consider security guarantees from Western allies rather than NATO membership; neither side is willing to make concessions, especially territorial ones.
After all, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial existence depend on the outcome of the war, and Putin has arguably staked his entire regime and Russia’s ego on defeating Ukraine and its Western backers, who he claims want to “destroy” Russia.
“China’s recent success in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia shows that it is capable of navigating between long-standing enemies. However, mediating between Ukraine and Russia will be a much more difficult challenge,” said Cheng Chen, a professor of political science at the university. explain. SUNY Albany told CNBC.
“Since Xi Jinping specifically mentioned the importance of sovereignty in his phone call with Zelensky, it is unlikely that China will side with Russia and demand outright concessions from Ukraine. However, China will try to ensure that any agreement reached will not make Russia feel uncomfortable. Shame in any obvious way,” she added.