How the U.S. and South Africa ended up in a dispute over Russian gunrunning allegations

Tensions between the U.S. and South Africa arose last week when U.S. ambassador Ruben Brigitte publicly accused Pretoria of supplying guns to Russia via a mysterious merchant ship.

Brigety was summoned to meet with senior South African officials on Friday to answer his comments, which were related to the “Lady R”, a U.S.-approved Russian merchant vessel that was loaded from the Russian port of Novorossiysk before docking at the Simons Town naval base , around 22 miles outside Cape Town, for three days in December.

Following a meeting with South Africa’s International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandol, Bridgetty He thanked the opportunity on Twitter to “correct any false impressions left by (his) public remarks.”

South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) published a completely different interpretation of the conversation in its reading.

Spokesman Clayson Monyela said DIRCO expressed “displeasure with (Brigety’s) actions” and said Brigety “acknowledged he had crossed the line and apologized unreservedly”.

Monyela also claimed that “the National Council for Conventional Arms Control (NCACC) has not approved any arms sales to Russia related to the relevant period and events… (and) any assertion that ‘South Africa (the government) is selling arms or is arming Russia'” fact above is incorrect.”

The sudden escalation in tensions sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity, with Pandol speaking with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on Friday.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa responded to the allegations with a statement on Monday, saying “as we have no concrete evidence to support the allegations, we are establishing an independent inquiry, led by a retired judge, to establish the facts.”

Ms R

The Lady R, a Russian-flagged ro-ro/ro-ro cargo ship sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control, docked at South Africa’s largest naval base under cover of darkness on Dec. Back to the sea 9, triggering speculation from residents, local media and opposition parties.

Photographers took pictures of the Lady R and several container trucks transferring cargo between the ship’s automatic identification system, which was said to be offline, according to multiple South African media reports. Military experts pointed out that it is strange for a civilian ship to be docked at a naval base, especially when there is a commercial port of Table Bay nearby.

At the time, Defense Secretary Tandy Modis acknowledged that the ship was docked in Simon’s Town, but told reporters that the unloaded cargo was an “old order of ammunition used by Special Forces.” She promised further information and clarification, which never materialized.

Lady R is owned by Transmorflot, a Russian company sanctioned by OFAC, which did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

At a news conference last week, Ambassador Brigitte said the US was “certain that the weapons were loaded on that ship” and that he would “bet (his) life on the accuracy of that assertion”.

Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa in Cape Town, said it was fair for Pretoria to demand evidence from the U.S. to back up its claims, but noted that “failure to categorically deny it by senior government officials only fuels the impression that something is wrong with South Africa.” To hide.”

While he acknowledged that the US has a “long history of weaponizing intelligence”, the circumstances surrounding the Lady R’s stop in South Africa “are decidedly suspicious, and repeated requests (domestic and foreign) for the country to explain itself have been foolishly ignored “

“South Africa has been black-spotted and it is now the country’s responsibility to show that its image has been wrongfully tarnished,” Nell said.

“Proving its innocence is not a simple matter, and its immediate response does not inspire confidence.”

South Africa’s “non-aligned” stance

Ambassador Brigitte told a contentious news conference that the “Madame R” mystery made South Africa’s non-aligned policy over the Ukraine war “inexplicable”.

In Monday’s statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa also insisted that South Africa “has not and will not be drawn into a contest between global powers”, suggesting the country has been targeted for recrimination over its neutrality in the Ukraine war.

“That doesn’t mean we don’t have a position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he added. “Consistent with our position on conflicts in other parts of the world, South Africa’s view is that the international community needs to work together to urgently cease hostilities and prevent further loss of life and displacement of Ukrainian civilians.”

Ramaphosa reiterated his call for the international community to “support meaningful dialogue towards a lasting peace”, saying South Africa’s position was aimed at creating conditions that would allow “a durable solution to the conflict to be achieved”.

“We do not accept that our non-aligned position favors Russia over other countries. We also do not accept that it jeopardizes our relations with other countries,” he added.

Pretoria’s diplomatic efforts over the past week have extended beyond Washington, with Ramaphosa also speaking on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

At a news conference on Tuesday, he announced that both leaders had expressed a willingness to meet with delegations of African heads of state to discuss potential pathways to peace.

South Africa’s relationship with Russia has been under the spotlight since its all-out invasion of Ukraine last year. Earlier this year, the government welcomed a diplomatic visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and conducted controversial joint military exercises with Russia and China, which coincided with the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party has close ties to Moscow dating back to Soviet support for the anti-apartheid movement. South African Foreign Minister Pandol marked this history during Lavrov’s visit, lauding the deepening relationship between the two countries as part of a “redesigned global order”.

Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the new charges cast further doubt on South Africa’s non-aligned status — especially after an ANC ruling in March that said “the U.S. problem that provoked a war with Russia,” and as the country abstained in a U.N. vote condemning Russian aggression.

South Africa will also host the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Johannesburg in August, to which Russian President Vladimir Putin is invited. He may have to join virtually in light of ICC warrants for the forcible deportation of children from occupied parts of Ukraine.

This in itself caused turmoil in Pretoria as Ramaphosa’s government briefly threatened Withdrew from the ICC ahead of objection to the president’s remarks.

“It’s unclear how things will play out in the coming weeks and months, but these latest developments have the potential to further strain South Africa’s relationship with the US and its Western allies,” Tuvey said.

economic risk

A further deterioration in South Africa’s relationship with the US and participation of South African businesses in the African Growth and Opportunity Act could pose risks to US exports worth more than $15 billion, according to 2021 figures from the US Department of Commerce.

Earlier this year, the US Congress introduced legislation requiring a review of bilateral relations with Pretoria, given its apparent preference for Moscow. Selected products from South Africa are under review for duty-free access to the US market under the landmark AGOA before the deal is renewed in 2025.

It is this risk that has caused the rand to plummet — Hit a record low of R19.51 against the dollar It hit an all-time closing low of 19.33, while South African bond yields surged after Brigety’s comments last week. According to industry body Business Leadership South Africa, business leaders are starting to see exclusion from AGOA as a real possibility.

“One of the conditions for a country to qualify for AGOA is that it does not pose a threat to the national security interests of the United States. Providing weapons to Russia would clearly put us in violation of this requirement,” BLSA CEO Busisiwe Mavuso said in a statement on Monday express.

“It may not stop there – our free trade agreement with the EU could also be at risk and trade relations with the UK could be affected.”

The BLSA said the Simon Town incident “needed an explanation since it happened” and that “the government must clean up this mess”, calling on Ramaphosa’s government to “take a clear stance on the arms trade with Russia” and make a “joint effort to restore relations with Russia”. America’s positive relationship”