Xi Jinping courts Central Asia as Russian influence weakens

President Xi Jinping is stepping up efforts to strengthen China’s influence in Central Asia by hosting his first face-to-face regional summit dedicated to strengthening ties with the region traditionally dominated by Russia.

With Moscow weakened and distracted by the war in Ukraine, the two-day summit, which begins Thursday, presents an opportunity for Beijing to push forward with five strategically important former Soviet republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – strengthening economic and political relations.

“I don’t think China will replace Russia’s importance in Central Asia in a short period of time, but (the competition for influence) has already begun,” said Shi Jianyu, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s National Defense Academy. security research. “They’re in a silent competitive mode.”

While Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is preparing to host the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima this weekend, China has been emphasizing the symbolism of the summit, giving Mr. Xi a chance to showcase his skills as a statesman.

China will meet in Xi’an, China’s ancient capital, where the Silk Road trade route once snaked through Central Asia to Europe. This year also marks the 10th anniversary of Xi Jinping launching his $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative, the equivalent of the modern Silk Road.

Beijing considers Central Asia critical to the security of its politically sensitive western region of Xinjiang, which has been accused of repressing the local Muslim Uighur population. The region is also an important source of energy and a conduit for overland trade with Europe.

Russia has begun to lose influence in the former Soviet Union amid widespread unease over the war in Ukraine. Moscow has also lost its traditional role as a peacekeeper, notably absent in last year’s border clash between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s closest partners, has refused to back the invasion or acknowledge Moscow’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, and last year even signed an intelligence-sharing pact with Turkey, a member of the NATO alliance.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited all five Central Asian leaders to the annual Victory Day military parade celebrations in Moscow, in a sign that Russia wants to maintain its influence — Some are at the last minute.

The hasty organization showed that most leaders “politely avoided the trip at first,” but “when Putin called, the refusal became not only difficult but dangerous,” said Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Center on Russia and Eurasia. , written in the column.

According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Central Asian economies have prospered in part due to an influx of investment from Russian individuals and companies after the outbreak of hostilities. Some Central Asian countries are benefiting from increased remittances from Russian migrant workers as Russian labor becomes more scarce.

Central Asian countries, Umarov wrote, were “caught between two fires,” fearing embroiled in Putin’s wars but unable to resist the economic benefits of retaining Russia’s few windows to the world.

“Anything that appears to be tilting one way or another in the region should not be seen as a general endorsement of or a break with Russia,” he wrote.

The Xi’an summit is the third between China and the so-called C5 countries, but previous meetings have been held online due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Yang Jiang, a senior fellow at the Danish Institute of International Studies, said Beijing’s focus on Central Asia dates back to 2012, when Xi Jinping launched the “Go West” strategy. The following year, Xi launched the Belt and Road Initiative in Kazakhstan.

Chinese state media said China’s trade with the five countries totaled $70.2 billion last year, while nearly 80 percent of China-Europe freight trains passed through the region.

China is the largest buyer of Central Asian natural gas. The region also hosts deposits of rare earth metals, notably in Kazakhstan. “China can play a key role in the extraction and extraction of these reserves,” said Yunis Sharifli, a researcher at the Central Asia Barometer, a research group.

Analysts say China may offer to help the region with green energy projects, building 5G mobile networks and expanding road and rail networks.

Another plan that could be discussed is a proposal to build a $4.1 billion rail line between China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to open up pure rail travel to Europe. Analysts say that would avoid passage through Russia, which is under Western sanctions for its all-out invasion of Ukraine.

While China will not try to replicate Russia’s military presence — Moscow maintains bases in the region — analysts say Xi may use the summit to announce increased security cooperation.

China is already working with Tajikistan to prevent militants, weapons and drugs from crossing the border into Xinjiang. Xi could push the process further with proposals for a regional security plan, as China did with the Pacific islands last year, although the move ended in Beijing’s dismay.

“China has been concerned about Russian sensitivities there, and it will be interesting to see how far Xi can go,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist at the CNA think tank in Washington.

Analysts say many Central Asians are also skeptical of China’s intentions and are increasingly concerned about the country’s growing debt to Beijing.

China’s position in Central Asia was jeopardized last month when China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, declared that “the states of the former Soviet Union do not have valid status under international law”. Beijing quickly walked back the comments, but the diplomat was not fired.

“China’s problem is not hard power, but soft power,” Sharifli said. People in the region want Chinese technology and investment but are “worried about China’s presence,” he said.

Russia remains the dominant player in Central Asia, and may be the preferred player, Wishnick said. “I wouldn’t say that Xi Jinping can sit back and relax at this meeting.”

Additional reporting by Max Seddon in Riga