Kadima Party (centre) leader Pita Limjaroenrat at a rally in Bangkok, Thailand, May 18, 2023.
Valeria Mongli | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Thailand’s preliminary election result was a victory for the progressive Kadima Party, but its reforms will threaten conservative forces who could move to block a pro-Democrat ruling party.
Move Forward leader and elected prime minister candidate Pita Limjaroenrat has announced a six-party coalition that includes Pheu Thai, the populist pro-Democracy party that came second in the election.
That gave the coalition 310 seats in the 500-seat lower house of parliament. Whoever the coalition appoints as prime minister will have to win 376 parliamentary votes – a total of votes from the 250-seat, military-appointed Senate and lower house. A vote on the prime minister is expected in August, after the electoral commission certifies the election results.
Analysts say Forward faces remaining support for its controversial proposed policies – a new constitution, an end to the military’s dominance in politics, the abolition of mandatory conscription, the abolition of commercial monopolies and changes to the Irrespect of the Monarch law that punishes insults. The daunting task of 66 votes sent the king to prison.
Move Forward’s agenda is an insult and a head-on challenge to established centers of power.
titinam ponsutilac
Professor at Chulalongkorn University
The Move Forward party recently said potential coalition partners need not support its stance on irreverence as it plans to take its independence to parliament – and its refusal to compromise could also isolate potential allies and much of the junta-led Senate.
Ahead of the prime minister vote, political observers expect a variety of outcomes, including a possible coercive intervention by the country’s coalition of powerful military monarchs.
“The Move Forward agenda is an insult and a head-on challenge to established centers of power,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at the Institute for Security and International Studies.
“It’s likely to be a question of when and how they’re going to fight back – not if they’re going to fight back.”
Agency-led upgrades
Given Move Forward’s dogmatic stance, experts expect some kind of power play, adjusting the outcome according to institutional preferences.
Grand Royalists Could Even Ban Move Forward, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warn in report.
This is a plausible scenario since the royalist-conservative elite already controls official institutions such as the Constitutional Court, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the Election Commission.For example, the opposition party Future Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020 for violating electoral laws in the 2019 elections – a charge Human Rights Watch calls “Politically motivated.”
Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) echoed in a separate report: “The court could find ways to undo enough Move Forward and Pheu Thai victories to shift the balance of power.”
Peeta himself could also be a target.
He was recently accused of violating the constitution because he was a minority shareholder in a now-defunct media company while he was in parliament, an allegation he denies. According to Pongsudhirak, this could be a potential ground for his disqualification and enable the less radical Pheu Thai Party to lead the coalition.
Napisa Waitoolkiat, a political scientist at Naresuan University, pointed out that Pita’s case has precedent for being cleared.
Conservative forces have all the tools necessary to prevent Move Forward from taking power.
suzanne barton
Lowy Institute
In 2001, the Constitutional Court acquitted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra of concealing assets, even though he had been indicted on corruption charges, she said. “If the elites choose to respect the votes of the Thai people, they can certainly do this time as they did with Thaksin in 2001.”
There are other ways for the Senate to block Move Forward. Senators could abstain and refuse to confirm Peeta, leading to a deadlock, according to CSIS.Ton
The Senate could also revoke the House of Commons MPs’ choice of prime minister, barring a hard-to-get supermajority of 376 votes, Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute, said in a report.she points senator’s statement Who suggested they would not automatically support the winning party’s nominee.
Barton concluded: “The Conservatives have all the tools necessary to prevent the Forward movement from taking government.”
betrayal for thailand
Pheu Thai, an opposition party led by the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has been more careful in its message about the monarchy. Analysts say it is likely to part ways with Move Forward and work with the pro-military in order to negotiate strategic gains.
“Given Pheu Thai’s hunger for power, the party leadership may view Move Forward’s progressive stance and its threat to the monarchy as politically responsible,” CFR said in its report. “If Pheu Thai abandons its pro-democracy colleagues in pursuit of power, then the Bhumjaithai party is likely to play an important role as a kingmaker in forming a coalition government.”
Bhumjaithai, known for their strong support for marijuana legalization, is considered ideologically flexible because they support the establishment but are willing to work with pro-democracy institutions.
A key reason why Pheu Thai might drop Move Forward, Pongsudhirak said, was “a narrowly reached joint agreement that included Thaksin’s return to Thailand from exile under easing conditions related to his conviction and incarceration.”
Doing so, however, would have long-term consequences for Pheu Thai’s image.
“Phaeu Thai faces the risk of being punished in the election by pro-democracy voters who are the main supporters of Pheu Thai in the future,” Waitoolkiat warned.
play the wait and see game
Move Forward’s clear lead in the preliminary election results gives it clear leadership in the public’s mind. As history shows, any attempt at obstruction could lead to widespread protests.
When Future Forward disbanded in 2020, it sparked massive youth-led protests.
“If the prime minister chosen is not a representative of the Move Forward-Pheu Thai coalition, but one from the pro-military and its allies and senators, expect major street protests,” CFR said.
CSIS added that under such circumstances, there is a possibility of another coup by the military. Thailand is no stranger to coups — there have been at least 19 since 1932, According to the think tank.
Fresh from recovering from a pandemic-induced recession, officials likely also don’t want street demonstrations that could undermine investor confidence and economic growth.
“While in the past the Thai military has been prepared to take the risk of protests from rural northeastern Thailand, Move Forward’s command victories in Bangkok and other urban centers may make the military think twice,” she said. Thailand Chamber of Commerce Review It suggests business groups want a stable government rather than another period of political turmoil.
“Thus, the establishment may judge that bringing Move Forward in office is a wiser tactical move,” she continued. “In past turbulent times, such as the 2014 coup, the establishment acted only when it felt that all options had been exhausted.”
“This time around, policymakers may calculate that they can let events take their course and use the legal option to act later if the red line is crossed,” Barton added.