Gunfire filled the air on a recent spring morning in the city of Esmeraldas on Ecuador’s Pacific coast. In a chilling reminder that the country is no longer safe, some 30 men arrived by speedboat and killed nine workers before fleeing last month.
Drug-related violence in the form of prison massacres, funeral shootouts and dismembered bodies is becoming a grim daily reality in Ecuador, which until a few years ago was a haven of relative calm between violent neighbors Colombia and Peru.
Now, traffickers from those two countries — the world’s largest cocaine producers — have expanded into the once-stable country to fortify distribution routes and terrorize the population, along with rivals from Mexico and Albania.
With snap elections in August, a wave of bloodshed looks set to dominate the campaign.Nearly two-thirds of Ecuadorians see safety as their top concern, according to local pollsters Overview of Opinions.
“Ecuador is not prepared for this kind of violence, and the security forces and ordinary people don’t know how to respond,” said María Teresa Escobar, who runs the political website Primicias. “Until it’s so safe, people won’t think about crime and leave their doors unlocked.”
The country’s murder rate per capita has surpassed that of Mexico and Brazil, with more than 4,800 homicides last year in the country of 18 million people, nearly double the previous year and four times more in 2018, according to the Interior Ministry. times.
The surge in violence comes after the cartel expanded into Ecuador, where port security is relatively lax and where a sharp drop in living standards during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a steady supply of gang members.
“People want to see a candidate enter the campaign ring with a clear and strong message about security policy from day one,” said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The crime wave has hammered the administration of two-year-old conservative President Guillermo Lasso, who avoided an impeachment trial last week by dissolving Congress, triggering congressional and presidential elections.
Russo has denied the embezzlement allegations behind the impeachment trial, which are related to contracts signed during his first three years as president, and said they have distracted the administration from responding to the crime wave.
While a debt restructuring deal with China and the country’s Covid vaccination campaign have been praised, Russo has often been attacked by the opposition-controlled Congress for failing to contain the violence.
Ana Belén Cordero, a former lawmaker and Russo ally, said the level of violent crime met the criteria of “crisis and civil unrest” and required the use of the so-called “common death” in the constitution that allows Congress to be out of session terms.
Presidential and congressional elections will be held on 20 August. If no presidential candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held on October 15.
Ratings agency Fitch last week changed its outlook on Ecuador to negative from stable, citing ongoing political instability. It said the outbreak of crime would require increased government spending.
Fernando Villavicencio, the first candidate to announce his intention to run, said fighting the well-funded mafia would be at the heart of his message.
“Ecuador is almost drowning in organized crime,” Villavicencio, a centrist former journalist and lawmaker, told the FT. If elected, he and the security forces would take on criminal financiers “with the constitution in one hand and a gun in the other,” he said.
The wave of violence has been centered on the coast, where gangs compete for ports and distribution routes, but in Quito, the capital high in the Andes, the fear of crime seeps into everyday life.
As night falls, the streets, usually full of life and commerce, become quiet. Shops were closed and armed private security guards patrolled outside restaurants and hotels. Companies that sell body armor and bulletproofing for vehicles report booming business in the sector.
“You can’t walk around here at night, you can’t carry a wallet or wear jewelry,” said Patricia Mayancela, who owns a small grocery store south of Quito. She had fewer customers after she was forced to shorten her hours, closing two hours earlier than usual to keep herself and the store safe.
Police are not equipped or trained to deal with violent crime. The military — recently authorized by Lasso’s designation of the criminal gang as a terrorist organization — can deploy, although analysts say generals are wary of getting drawn into turf wars among traffickers.
The U.S. ambassador to Ecuador, Michael Fitzpatrick, told local media two years ago that he was concerned about “drug lords” among the security forces.
After the massacre in Esmeraldas, Razo ordered 2,000 soldiers to patrol the streets. Three cartel members were arrested in connection with the killing.
Leading economist Alberto Acosta-Burneo said campaign rhetoric around a wave of crime could “open the door” to an authoritarian government.
Ecuador has had authoritarian rule in the past, most recently under socialist Rafael Correa’s presidency, which from 2007 to 2017 deployed security forces to quell dissent while adopting tolerance for drug trafficking Attitude. Correa lives in Belgium to avoid jail time on corruption convictions. No one in his movement has yet declared a candidacy in this year’s election.
At least two potential candidates appear to be taking inspiration from El Salvador’s strongman President Nayib Bukele, who has won admirers across Latin America for his crackdown on gangs despite criticism for his human rights record .
One of them, Otto Sonnenholzner, an independent former vice president from the crime-ridden port city of Guayaquil, had previously heard from Spanish politician Victor López, who had worked on Bukele’s campaign. (Victor López).
Another candidate, Jan Topic, a political novice who said he had served in Ukraine and Syria, made no secret of his admiration for El Salvador’s president.
“Nayib Bukele has that grit, that determination to get things done and do it in an incorruptible manner,” he told US media. “That’s what we’re going to do.”