A deal on the U.S. debt ceiling doesn’t necessarily mean the path to President Biden’s desk is clear. On Sunday, the president and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a final deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, which if passed by Congress, would avert a U.S. debt default. Next comes the political wrangling, which means it’s still going to be an intense week. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the fiscal responsibility bill on Wednesday. The Senate will then take up the matter in full view on Monday, with the Treasury Department saying the so-called X date is the earliest date the government could default. “The deal is going to face some headwinds as it gets through both houses of Congress, and we should be prepared for headline volatility as these types of packages kill a dozen people before they pass, but we still stand by our view that The package will be clear before we hit the national debt ceiling on June 5,” BTIG policy research director Isaac Boltansky wrote in a note on Monday. Several Wall Street economists agree that the deal is likely to be signed, but it will not be easy along the way. Still, Tobin Marcus, senior U.S. policy and political strategist at Evercore ISI, doesn’t expect a big market reaction when the bill is due to pass. “We can’t yet completely rule out failure, but … we expect the bill to pass Congress this week and be signed into law by Day X,” he wrote in a note Tuesday. “Given how this is priced in, we don’t expect a major market reaction to the Congressional milestone barring a TARP-like disaster.” Here are some potential headwinds legislation could face in the week ahead. CBO Score Boltansky is concerned that CBO’s score on the package could indicate that deficit reduction is modest relative to the U.S. fiscal position, but he doubts that will derail the deal. The CBO is a nonpartisan federal agency that provides objective budget and economic data to Congress. “There’s always a lot of latitude in how those numbers are constructed (such as annual assumptions, etc.),” he said. “For example, a preliminary CBO report estimated that the debt ceiling package could reduce spending by $210 million if the proposed budget cap remained in place for the full six years, which is possible but unlikely given the mechanics of the legislation.” House of Representatives Rules committee meeting Before legislation reaches the House for a vote, it must pass the 13-member House Rules Committee — nine Republicans and four Democrats. However, despite the Republican majority, Tuesday afternoon’s meeting could be “chaotic,” Boltansky said. “There could be some headline volatility Tuesday afternoon,” he wrote. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius also sees the committee meeting as a point of uncertainty, although he sees a strong chance of eventually passing the deal. Two Republicans, Reps. Chip Roy and Ralph Norman, appeared to oppose the bill, while a third Republican, Rep. Thomas Massey’s position, was unclear. “If all three vote against it and no Democrats vote yes, the bill will fail,” Hatzius wrote in a note Monday. The bill went to the House because we thought a majority of the committee would vote for it even though it needed Democratic support (it’s not common, but not unheard of, for a minority to support a majority effort in a rules committee) Evercore’s Marcus agreed. “It will be interesting as a lens through which to look at the internal politics of the House GOP, but even if Marcy decides to vote against the bill, we’d be very surprised to see Democrats on the rules committee McCarthy vote of no confidence Meanwhile, Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, pointed to the possibility of a vote of no confidence in McCarthy by more conservative members of the House. While this would “block the process when time is tight,” the risk of such a vote is low, Evercore’s Marcus noted, even if McCarthy faces a vote to oust the speaker. Fail. He expects a “crucial number” of Democrats to abstain or back McCarthy entirely to prevent him from being replaced by a more conservative, weaker speaker. “Democrats teaming up with far right Penalizing McCarthy for reaching a deal with Biden doesn’t make any sense. A tight House vote is expected. A conservative group of House Republicans has publicly attacked the bill, and some Democrats have also spoken out against it. How will Democratic lawmakers share the burden of passing this legislation, as most want it to pass but few are willing to vote for it. BTIG’s Boltansky noted that Republicans control the House by a margin of 222 to 213, The bill needs a simple majority, or 218 votes, to pass.” The House’s biggest concern is the counting maneuver for Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) and Democratic Leader Jeffries (D-NY) as they both sit in new seats Boltansky said the conventional wisdom when he spoke on Monday was that McCarthy would get at least 150 “yes” votes from Republicans and 150 “yes” from Democrats, Boltansky said. Should get at least 70 “yes” votes. “The bill is expected to pass the floor Wednesday night, but some contacts say it could be delayed until Thursday morning,” he said. Senate slowdown? Although Boltansky expects the package could garner enough votes to pass the House of Lords, but he is concerned about the timeline. One senator could “meaningfully slow the process,” he said. “For example, Senator Mike Lee (R- -UT) has said he will extend consideration of the package if it fails to deliver ‘substantial’ cuts, which could bring passage dangerously close to the June 5 deadline even if the final outcome is not in serious doubt, Boltansky wrote. Hatzius is working on a timetable for a possible Senate vote by Friday, though he said delays could push it into the weekend. Act before the expected June 5 deadline to raise the debt ceiling, although a final bill could be enacted within days to spare,” he said. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.