The United States and European powers have resumed discussions about how to engage Iran over its nuclear activities amid growing concerns that the Islamic Republic’s aggressive expansion of its nuclear program could spark a regional war.
The move marks a shift in Western thinking and underscores fears of an escalating crisis, as Tehran has enriched uranium to levels that U.S. officials have warned in recent months that it could produce in less than two weeks Enough material to make nuclear weapons.
“There is a recognition that we need an aggressive diplomatic program to address Iran’s nuclear program and not let it drift,” one Western diplomat said. “What worries me is that Iran’s decision-making is quite muddled and that it might stumble into war with Israel.”
The United States, France, Germany and Britain halted diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in September and detained some after Tehran rejected draft proposals to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, launched a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters and sold armed drones to Russia. European nationals.
But there have been contacts with Iranian officials in recent months, including a meeting in Oslo in March between officials of the so-called E3 (French, German and British) and Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani.
U.S. special envoy to Iran Rob Malley met several times with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, who met at the He was a senior official on the Supreme National Security Council before being sent to New York in September.
The talks are believed to be the first direct contacts between U.S. and Iranian officials since former U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers, known as the JCPOA, sparked a crisis. Trump has imposed hundreds of sanctions on the republic, and Iran has responded by aggressively increasing its nuclear activities.
A person close to the administration said the talks focused on the possibility of a prisoner swap with Iran. Tehran has at least three US-Iranian nationals.
Tehran last week agreed to a prisoner swap with Belgium and separately released two Austrians held in Iran. A successful US prisoner exchange could improve the environment for any nuclear negotiations.
U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged to return to the JCPOA and ease sanctions if Tehran returns to compliance. But recently U.S. officials said the deal was “not on the agenda,” suggesting any agreement would be more restrictive.
Potential options, diplomats and analysts said, include some form of interim agreement, or a detente from both sides in which Iran lowers its enrichment levels in exchange for partial sanctions relief.
“The prisoner swap will be the prelude to the talks,” said another diplomat briefed on the talks. “A nuclear deal is unlikely, but there could be some kind of interim deal, or a freeze deal.”
Washington “has always believed that diplomacy is the best way to verifiably and durably ensure that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon,” a U.S. official said, adding: “But we have nothing to announce, and we haven’t removed anything from the table. option.”
Iran has been enriching uranium to a purity of 60 percent, and in January the International Atomic Energy Agency found particles enriched to about 84 percent at the Fordow plant, which is almost weapons-grade.
In the weeks since, Israeli officials have warned that the Jewish state will do everything in its power to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
The news agency said this week, citing a leaked IAEA report, that the U.N. watchdog no longer questioned the particles found in Fordow. That could ease pressure on Iran ahead of a meeting of the IAEA’s board of governors next week.
Sanam Vakil, an Iran expert at Chatham House, said: “There are attempts to revive thinking about this crisis, which is very urgent because Iran is a nuclear threshold state. “Everyone is looking for Band-Aids. “
However, there are skepticism about Iran’s seriousness in resolving the nuclear issue and whether Biden will be willing to negotiate a deal as the United States prepares for the next election cycle.
Ali Vaz, an Iran expert at the Crisis Group, said: “E3 is mostly focused on Washington to see if the Biden administration will make a decision, but they are frustrated because the US just wants to cover this up until the 2024 election. The main focus here What matters is the re-election of the president.”