Hopes for a return to democracy in Venezuela are fading as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro wins greater regional recognition, thwarting U.S. and European efforts to force him to negotiate free and fair elections next year.
After years of isolation following his controversial 2018 election victory, the increasingly successful Maduro basked in the diplomatic spotlight last week at a South American summit hosted by Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Down.
Maduro told his fellow presidents that his country had survived a U.S. attack under former President Donald Trump that was “more brutal than the (Russian) attack on Ukraine.” He cited “900 sanctions and measures targeting the entire economy”, as well as assassination attempts, threats of military invasion and international isolation.
“Here we are, resisting and looking to the future,” he concluded after boasting that his Revolutionary Socialist Party had won 27 of 29 presidential, parliamentary and local elections during his 24 years in power.
Standing by Maduro, Lula uncritically supported him and spoke of the “narrative against Venezuela,” adding: “I think Venezuela should show its own narrative so that it can really change people’s minds.”
Thomas Shannon, a former senior U.S. State Department diplomat who is now a consultant at the Washington law firm Arnold & Porter, said Lula “really undermined the Biden administration’s approach – which could have had some success – to get Madhu Luo believes he has “nothing to give to the opposition”.
Maduro faces ICC investigation for possible crimes against humanity US offers $15 million reward He was held on drug terrorism charges. However, he also held bilateral talks in Brasilia with leftist leaders in Argentina and Colombia, as well as with Lula.
None of them have publicly criticized Venezuela’s political repression and economic mismanagement that has led to an exodus of 7 million refugees. Only Chile’s leftist leader and Uruguay’s conservative president have expressed concern about rights abuses in Venezuela, comments Maduro quickly dismissed.
A Brazilian diplomat said Lula had privately raised the issue of Venezuelan elections with Maduro. “It’s important to get these presidents together,” he said. “Over the years we’ve had situations where some people refuse to be in the same room as other people.”
The Biden administration last year abandoned a failed Trump-era “maximum pressure” sanctions strategy aimed at forcing regime change in Caracas. In November, it allowed Chevron to restart limited oil exports from the country, a move aimed at prompting Maduro to restart talks with the opposition.
The U.S. concession comes after a tentative agreement between Maduro’s government and the opposition in Norway-brokered talks for humanitarian projects to use $3 billion in Venezuela’s frozen funds in the West.
But six months later, the funds have still not been unfrozen, the negotiations have not resumed, and time is running out for talks that could boost the chances of a free presidential election next year.
Vote date yet to be set, but opposition in disarray maduro hints He may vote early.
“Maduro doesn’t feel the pressure to sit down with the opposition and negotiate the terms of the election,” said Lineberger, director of the Americas program at the CSIS think tank in Washington. “Not to mention, the region is rallying around him now.”
Maduro has survived years of Western exclusion by turning to China, Russia, Turkey and Iran and dodging sanctions by moving oil cargoes to East Asia through middlemen. U.S. officials say his administration has boosted state coffers by encouraging illegal gold mining in the Amazon rainforest and profiting from drug traffickers.
Venezuela has turned to free markets in recent years, allowing for increased use of the dollar and removing some state controls. Venezuela’s gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year and will grow another 5 percent this year, albeit from a low base, the IMF said.
The EU had hoped to use Maduro’s prospects for an EU observer mission to next year’s elections to gain greater legitimacy. But diplomats in Brussels admit they will not be able to proceed without even the smallest political concessions from Caracas.
“The window of opportunity may close very quickly,” said a senior EU diplomat. “It’s a matter of months.”
The difficulty for the U.S. and the EU is that they have few other options after Trump-era sanctions failed and the West tried to recognize an alternative government led by former Congressional President Juan Guaido.
“The engagement with Maduro is important because he has no intention of going anywhere,” said Tamara Taraciuk Broner, a Venezuelan expert at the Washington-based Dialogue of the Americas. “But this engagement cannot be free, it needs to incentivize the Venezuelan authorities to advance the democratic process.”
“The last thing the Venezuelan people need is a boost to Maduro’s image,” she added. “Maduro had his own narrative of what was going on and Lula . . . gave that narrative more resonance.”
Additional reporting by Michael Pooler in Sao Paulo