Senegal, one of Africa’s bastions of stability, faces its gravest threat of unrest in decades

The criminalization of Senegal’s populist opposition leader has sparked widespread unrest, threatening the West African country’s long-established political stability.

Days of violence erupted late last week between security forces and supporters of Ousmane Sonko, the 2024 presidential candidate and leader of the opposition PASTEF party, who was sentenced in absentia on Thursday for “corrupting youth”. Two years in prison. He was acquitted of the rape charge.

As of Monday, at least 16 people were reported dead and hundreds injured, while police arrested about 500 people in several cities. Internet and social media access has been restricted, and roadblocks have been erected along major transport routes.

“The recent protest casualties set a worrying tone for the 2024 presidential election and should be thoroughly investigated and those responsible held accountable,” Karin Kanesa Nantulia, deputy Africa director at Human Rights Watch (Carine Kaneza Nantulya) said.

“Authorities should end their crackdown on protesters and critics and guarantee freedom of assembly.”

Such condemnation and calls for restraint have been echoed in recent days by the spokesman for UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the regional bloc of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the chair of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamad.

“The Senegalese authorities should stop arbitrary arrests, release those wrongfully detained, including children, and respect the right of the Senegalese people to demonstrate and protest peacefully,” said Canesa Nantulia.

“The African Union and ECOWAS should use their influence to pressure the Senegalese authorities to end their crackdown on protests and critics.”

The unrest comes after years of turmoil, the worst in decades in a country often seen as a beacon of democracy and stability in the region.

trigger of turmoil

Sonko is adamant that the multiple criminal cases brought against him in recent years are politically motivated, part of an effort by President McKee Sall’s government to undermine his 2024 candidacy. A conviction could prevent him from running.

He was first indicted on rape charges in March 2021 and faces a separate defamation charge. His various trial dates over the past two years have often been accompanied by violent outbursts by supporters.

Wider tensions among the public have recently simmered amid speculation that Saar will seek a third term despite the country’s two-term limit and his rapidly declining popularity since the last election in 2019.

Analysts at Pangea-Risk, an African specialist intelligence firm, said the root causes of the unrest are political and socioeconomic. Consumer price inflation has moderated since late 2022, but has hovered around 9%, with food prices up more than 11% year-over-year.

“Transportation costs, rent, electricity and fuel prices remain unaffordable for many Senegalese despite the country’s economy growing at record levels on the back of massive investments in extractive industries and infrastructure projects, including renewable energy and natural gas. speed growth – Pangea-Risk says:

“Many of the city’s young residents feel socioeconomically marginalized and increasingly frustrated with a government they say is led by aging and alienated leaders who have been slow to ease the pandemic Economic hit from fallout from war with Ukraine”

It was this demographic that was drawn to Sonko, a former tax inspector and whistleblower who rose to fame by exposing offshore tax havens used by members of the Senegalese elite. He founded PASTEF in 2014.

After losing his first presidential bid in 2019, he was elected mayor of the southern city of Ziguinchor in 2022. He has since built a strong base among socioeconomically disillusioned voters in the south of the country and in urban and industrial areas.

Sonko instigated the latest protests, and PASTEF issued a statement on Thursday urging citizens to “stop all activity and take to the streets”. Last month, he launched a convoy march between Zinguinchor and Dakar, encouraging protesters to join him.

It was unclear whether police planned to detain Sonko immediately to begin his incarceration, although such a move could add fuel to recent tensions. Beginning with apparent house arrest, Sonko advocated a “national resistance movement” to defend civil liberties.

key election

If last week’s conviction stands, Sonko could follow the example of other opposition leaders such as Khalifa Sall (no relation to the president) and Karim Wade, who were both convicted of fraudulently using funds ahead of the 2019 election and barred from running.

Some commentators have speculated that after the government’s apparent crackdown on stimulating opposition parties in recent years, President Sall may pardon some previously disqualified political leaders in order to spread the opposition vote in the 2024 general election.

In its report on Monday, Pangea-Risk said the threat of civil unrest would grow as the 2024 general election looms, intensified by the Saar government’s efforts to curb opposition and free speech.

While the latest violence appears to have been contained by internet restrictions and the massive deployment of the military, they added that there could be “widespread incidents of unrest” in major urban centers if Sonko is physically arrested or Sall announces his candidacy Candidate for a third term as the ruling APR.

“Public opposition to (Saar’s) power expansion ambitions could damage relationships with international investment partners, foreign donors and the IMF, whose support is needed to maintain fiscal stability, finance Subsidies and debt repayments.”

economic outlook

Senegal’s medium-term economic growth prospects have improved on the back of an influx of new hydrocarbon investment, with several major liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil projects coming online later this year.

“In the short term, debt sustainability will remain a major concern as expensive energy subsidies keep public budgets under constant pressure,” the report predicts.

“The government is unlikely to heed the IMF’s advice to cut subsidies and instead spend more on socio-economic relief, aiming to make it more attractive ahead of the 2024 general election.”

The IMF and Senegalese authorities agreed last month to a new 36-month financing facility under the agency’s Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility, as well as a $327.1 million Resilience and Sustainability Facility, amounting to approximately 15.26 One hundred million U.S. dollars.

The IMF’s visit to Dakar last month documented policy calls for fiscal consolidation, a stronger framework for governance and anti-money laundering and terrorism financing measures, and “more inclusive and job-rich growth.” .

The D.C.-based group expects Senegal’s non-hydrocarbon GDP growth to reach 5.3% in 2023, down from an initial forecast of 6%. If the aforementioned oil and gas production starts in the fourth quarter, overall GDP growth could exceed 8% this year.

Government debt is also expected to decline from 75% of GDP in 2022 to a more sustainable level in the coming years. The country’s debt profile is widely considered stable and the outlook is considered sustainable due to new hydrocarbon revenues coming on stream later this year.