Participants of a demonstration against arms shipments to Ukraine stand in front of a carnival statue of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Dusseldorf.
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Twice as many Europeans now see Russia as an adversary than before the war, but almost half have no confidence that Ukraine can defeat it.
in a multinational survey Nearly two-thirds of respondents to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said they now see Russia as an adversary or competitor – twice as many as in 2021. Public opinion varies widely across the continent.
Majorities in Denmark, Poland, Sweden and Germany see Moscow as an adversary, while only 37% of Italian respondents and 17% of Bulgarian respondents feel the same way.
Just one-third of respondents said they thought it was possible or very likely that Ukraine would win the war, while nearly two-fifths (22%) were undecided and almost half thought it was unlikely. Likely or highly unlikely.
The poll, which included public opinion from 11 EU member states – Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – also found that a majority of Europeans now support the EU boosting the economy its defense capabilities rather than relying on the United States
Nearly three-quarters (74%) of respondents said the EU should take steps to secure its own defense strategy, most notably Hungary, the Netherlands and Germany. Only 8% said it was not necessary because the US will always protect Europe.
Europeans want to see the EU become more self-reliant in foreign policy and build up its own defenses.
Jana Puglieri
Senior Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
The report authors say the findings point to an increased need for self-reliance among Europeans, especially in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbours.
“The main takeaway from our survey is that Europeans want to see the EU become more self-reliant in foreign policy and build up its own defenses,” said co-author and senior research fellow Jana Puglierin.
“These are not new demands from the EU or the leaders of its member states, but they have been sharpened by the war in Ukraine and rising tensions between the US and China.”
This could be a “defining moment” for the EU and its prospects for shifting away from U.S. dependence to its own policy stance, Plelin added.
Weakening interdependence between Europe and the United States
The report, “Keeping America Close, Keeping Russia Down, and Keeping China Away: How Europeans Are Responding to a Competitive World,” also explores public reactions to changing U.S.-China relations.
It marks a rapprochement in relations between Europe and the United States since the last survey, which coincided with Donald Trump’s presidency.
Majorities in Denmark and Poland, as well as majorities in the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany, say they now view the transatlantic partner as an “ally” of Europe – a marked rise from 2021, when no country saw Washington as an “ally”. Share European interests and values”.
European perceptions of the likelihood of specific geopolitical events over the next two years.
ECFR
However, there are concerns that Trump could be re-elected as president, with more than half of respondents saying such an event would weaken ties with the U.S.
Europeans are more optimistic about China than some EU leaders, with an average of 43 percent saying they view Beijing as a necessary partner, and only one in five respondents see risks in Europe’s trade and investment relationship with China outweighing the benefits.
The findings brought European public opinion closer to that of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Schulz, who view China as a strategic and global partner. Meanwhile, others in Brussels have taken a tougher policy stance, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaking of the need to de-risk the bloc’s relationship with Beijing.
(European leaders should) have an active dialogue with the public to prepare them for various geopolitical scenarios.
Pavelzeka
Senior Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Most Europeans also said their countries should avoid any possible conflict with Taiwan. Yet the prospect of China supplying Russia with arms is a red line for many and justification for sanctions — even if it hurts Western economies.
There are also concerns about China’s economic agenda. An average of two-thirds of respondents were uneasy about the prospect of China owning critical infrastructure, such as bridges or ports, as well as technology companies and national newspapers.
The report’s co-authors said European leaders should see differences in opinion as an opportunity to engage in active dialogue with the public, preparing them for possible future geopolitical scenarios.
“If European leaders base their actions on public expectations, they will fail to prepare for highly disruptive scenarios – with potentially devastating consequences for European security,” said senior research fellow Pawel Zerka.