The author is former Supreme Allied Commander Europe and author of The War with Russia
Indeed, the knights of the apocalypse have descended on Ukraine. With the breach of the Kakhovka Dam, Russia appears to have added an absurd act of environmental terrorism to the brutal occupation, the continuing death of a generation of young men and women in fighting in Ukraine, the massacre of civilians, and the destruction of cities on an unprecedented scale. Europe since 1945.
The immediate priority is international humanitarian support. But so far, the responses seem to be under the heading “too difficult.” The flood will be a major distraction in the early stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, when every heart, nerve and muscle is straining for a decisive victory. The rescue effort will drain resources that Ukraine is powerless to spare, especially in the face of Russia’s relentless bombing of Kherson relief efforts.
That said, the floods presented opportunities for Ukraine. Reports from open sources indicate that heavy equipment on the east bank of the Dnieper was damaged and that Russian fortifications and minefields were flooded. Crimea’s water supply has been severely affected, with implications for Moscow’s presence and capabilities there. The floods would also distract Russia, which faces multiple probing attacks on different axes along its long front.
The Ukrainians may have ruled out an amphibious assault on heavily defended Russian positions on the east bank south of the Dnieper. Kiev retained the initiative and had just launched a multi-weapon attack on Moscow’s forces, including main battle tanks. It will continue to probe, identify weaknesses, launch raids, and conduct deception operations to target Russian vulnerabilities as it concentrates its attacks.
Ukraine was quick to blame Russia for blowing up the dam from within, although its Western allies have yet to commit to the cause of the disaster. The danger is that if the Kremlin is ready to wreak havoc on this scale, it risks further escalation: sabotage of the Kiev dam or the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which could lead to a catastrophic radioactive leak with widespread environmental repercussions. From here, tactical nuclear installations The detonation is not implausible.
The strategic issue, not only with Ukraine’s partners in the West and NATO, but also with the international community, is one in which Russia feels the consequences. Embracing this humanitarian, economic and environmental brutality will only take Moscow one step further. A red line must be drawn. Ukraine’s partners must take off their gloves and make sure Kiev has the means to actually hurt Russia, such as targeting the Kerch Bridge or the Black Sea Fleet in the port of Sevastopol. Following the UK’s example, providing more long-range missiles (such as the US ATACMS) and accelerating the deployment of F-16 fighter jets would be a start.
Russia should be banned from the UN General Assembly, just like South Africa was in 1974. As for the tacit supporters of China and Russia in the southern hemisphere, such as India, South Africa, and Brazil, it is time to realize that sitting by and allowing war crimes to be committed is tantamount to being accomplices.
Moscow only recognizes the strong, and where it finds a weakness, it continues to exploit it. As the head of Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service told me and others in Kiev in late April, the only way to influence Russia is to punch it in the face — and then talk. That means NATO must show real muscle at the Vilnius summit in July and generate more rhetoric in support of Ukraine.
Instead, alliance leaders must advance NATO’s defense and deterrence posture, underscore NATO’s determination to support Ukraine, and begin integrating Kiev into the transatlantic community, including as an alliance member. Ukraine’s war goals must be fully recognized. Providing military equipment, ammunition, training and support must become an alliance strategy, not a bilateral arrangement between NATO members and Ukraine. Most importantly, a fast track must be drawn up for Ukraine to become a member of the alliance at next year’s NATO summit in Washington.
This war is not only against Ukraine, but also against the West, where Ukraine joins the West. Even if Kiev achieves its military goals (and with the full support of its allies, it can), Russia will remain an angry, humiliated, traumatized, revanchist state determined to wipe out Ukraine and rebuild another Russian empire.
The only way to save Europe from war for future generations is for NATO to build a steel deterrent line around its eastern border, with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and maybe one day, Belarus included. That means the coalition needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario: war with Russia. The long-term impact will be profound.