Rishi Sunak faces three challenging by-elections in the coming weeks after former UK cabinet minister Nigel Adams announced he would quit the House of Commons immediately.
The decision by Adams – an ally of former prime minister Boris Johnson – immediately sparked speculation of a coordinated attempt to undermine the current president in Downing Street.
Sunak’s Conservative Party will also have to defend the seats previously held by Johnson and another of his supporters, Nadine Dorries, who both resigned as MPs on Friday.
“If we don’t do well in a by-election, there will be problems,” a Conservative insider said on Saturday, describing it as the first major test of Sunak’s leadership.
The atmosphere at the party “is not good enough already, it’s going to be unsettling,” the person added.
Another Conservative said: “It’s a headache – I think in the long run it might be slightly better for them (Sunak’s team) without Boris, but it’s trivial. Because he would be sniping from the sidelines.”
Adams enjoys a supermajority of 20,137 votes in the Selby and Anstey seats he has held since its formation in 2010.
But a by-election in the UK could have unexpected results. Over the past two years, the Conservatives have lost several seats where they held a large majority in Tiverton and Honiton, North Shropshire and Chesham and Amersham.
Many of Johnson’s supporters have never forgiven Sunak for resigning as chancellor nearly a year ago, a move that sparked a wider ministerial coup that forced the then prime minister out of office.
“The counter-coup is well under way now,” said David Bannerman, a former Conservative MEP. “Sunak is on borrowed time. Looking forward to other by-elections.”
Former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, who was knighted by Johnson last Friday, pointedly described Adams as “loyal to the end”.
But one Conservative MP said: “Boris and Nadine are selfish and they’ve already lost. It’s all out of malice.”
Another Conservative MP said it “feels like Boris’ dying struggle to gain support in Parliament”.
Adams resigned hours after Johnson announced he was resigning in protest of what he called a “kangaroo court” privileged committee. The committee is set to pass a judgment on whether he lied to MPs about the Downing Street lockdown party.
Johnson said on Friday night that he was leaving parliament “for now” because he believed the Conservative majority committee was dealing a “political blow” against him after passing preliminary findings this week.
Earlier on Friday, Downing Street published Johnson’s letter of honor for his resignation, which he used to bestow knighthoods, titles and other awards on allies.
A group of four Johnson-supporting Conservative MPs – including Adams and Doris – were expected to receive peerage titles, but some colleagues believe they were blocked by No. 10 to avoid a string of by-elections. Downing Street has denied any direct involvement by Sunak.
Former culture secretary Doris Doris resigned on Friday, prompting an upcoming by-election in her Central Bedfordshire constituency, where she has a majority of 24,664 votes.
The Conservatives will defend a slim majority of 7,210 in Johnson’s former constituency of Uxbridge in west London, raising expectations that Labor will take the seat.
Scottish secretary Alister Jack and former COP26 president Alok Sharma are expected to be peered, but two other Conservative MPs have not received peerages.