Flames burn during the McKinney Fire in the Klamath National Forest, July 31, 2022.
David McNew | AFP | Getty Images
The area burned by wildfires in northern and central California forests increased five-fold from 1971 to 2021, an increase driven primarily by human-caused climate change, according to new research Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Of the top 10 wildfires in California over the past two decades, five occurred in 2020 and eight occurred after 2017. Scientists estimate that by mid-century, the area burned in the average summer could increase by 50 percent as the weather becomes hotter and drier.
It came just days after wildfire smoke from Canada spread across the U.S. East Coast and caused dangerous air quality levels in major metro areas including Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. and New York City.
The researchers performed a statistical analysis of California summer temperature and wildfire data from 1971 to 2021 and evaluated models showing what the past few decades might have looked like without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. They found that the area burned increased by 172 percent compared to the scenario without climate change.
“It is clear that anthropogenic climate change is a major contributor to the increase in wildfire damage,” Amir AghaKouchak, UCI professor of civil and environmental engineering and co-author of the paper, said in a release.
The researchers found that below-average precipitation, warmer summer temperatures, less snowpack in mountains in the spring, and more frequent extreme weather are factors that are associated with climate change and wildfire risk.
Research also shows that climate change and variability are drying out the air and exacerbating insufficient vapor pressure, or the difference between the amount of moisture in the air and what it can hold when saturated. Another factor contributing to the fires is poor forest management, leaving dead wood and undergrowth to help ignite the fires.
“Our paper clearly shows that the problem is ours to solve and we can take steps to help solve it,” said AghaKouchak. “Taking action now to reduce our CO2 emissions and pursue more sustainable transportation, energy production and agricultural practices , we can reduce the adverse effects of global climate change.”
