Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the Faith and Freedom Trail Majority Conference at the Washington Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC, June 24, 2023.
Drew Angler | Getty Images
Former President Donald Trump has broadened his focus on Florida Gov. Ron DeSanne since Trump’s latest indictment on federal criminal charges, according to a new NBC News poll. Ron DeSantis and other Republican presidential nominees.
Still, the survey found that half of Republican primary voters said they would consider another leader besides Trump, suggesting a rival may have a chance at the Republican nomination, although six in 10 Republicans think The indictments and investigations Trump faces are politically motivated.
“For the first time in history, a former president has been indicted, and we can’t find anything in this survey that suggests That has an impact on his standing,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster with the Hart Research Associates.
“Not only are they sticking with Trump after the federal indictment, but there are several signs that his support is growing or that others are losing support, especially Ron DeSanti,” Horwitt said of Republican voters. S.”
Trump’s troubles come not from Republicans but from ordinary voters: Most registered voters, including 55 percent of independents, expressed concern about Trump after he was indicted on federal criminal charges. President Joe Biden leads Trump by 4 points in the NBC News poll, the first hypothetical general election matchup in 2024.
But surveys show that a majority of registered voters have expressed concerns about the physical and mental health of Trump and Biden and have reservations about the pair serving another four years as president.
The NBC News poll was conducted June 16-20, a week after a federal grand jury indicted Trump for mishandling classified documents discovered at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence last year.
However, polls show that Trump has a sizeable and widening lead over his Republican presidential rival following the federal indictments.
Fifty-one percent of Republican primary voters nationwide chose the former president as their first choice for the 2024 Republican presidential nominating race, followed by DeSantis at 22 percent and former Vice President Mike Pence at 7 percent, 5 percent chose former Vice President Mike Pence. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
No other Republican candidate has more than 4 percent support.
Trump leads DeSantis by 29 points in multi-candidate field NBC News Poll for April, 46 percent chose Trump as their first choice, while 31 percent chose DeSantis. The investigation comes shortly after the former president was indicted in New York for his alleged involvement in the hush money case.
In the current survey, when the Republican presidential race is down to two candidates, Trump has the support of 60 percent of Republican primary voters, compared with 36 percent for DeSantis.
A total of 77 percent of Republican primary voters said they were either not too concerned (14 percent) or not really concerned at all (63 percent) by the federal charges against Trump in the classified documents case.
By contrast, 55 percent of registered voters said the allegations made them seriously concerned (47 percent) or moderately concerned (8 percent).
64% of Republican primary voters believe the multiple indictments and investigations Trump faces are politically motivated, and say they must support him to prevent their opponent from winning — though slightly less than 68% Who said that In April, he was indicted for the first time in the New York case.
Half of Republicans want Trump to remain party leader
The NBC News poll also found that nearly half of Republican primary voters (49%) said Trump should remain party leader. Those voters overwhelmingly chose Trump as their first choice in the primary.
Another 21 percent said it was time to consider other leaders, even though they thought Trump was a good president. A majority of those voters chose DeSantis as their first choice, but Trump also has the support of a fifth of that group.
Twenty-nine percent said the Republican Party needs a new leader who behaves better personally and does things differently than Trump. The group’s support has been backed by DeSantis, Pence, Christie and other candidates.
While a total of 50% of Republican primary voters are open to a leader other than Trump, GOP pollster McIntuff said Trump’s 49% are in a field with multiple candidates. “A Strong Starting Number”.
“Something has to happen to change this race,” he said, adding that early nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have shown the potential to make that happen in past presidential races.
Measuring a Biden-Trump rematch
The NBC News poll tested for the first time a hypothetical general election matchup between Presidents Trump and Biden in the 2024 presidential cycle.
Biden has the support of 49% of registered voters, compared with 45% for Trump. Biden’s 4-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error.
In this hypothetical rematch, Biden leads among women voters (55%-38%), voters ages 18-34 (65%-30%), Latino voters (66%-26%) and black voters (73%). %-20%), as well as independents (47%-33%) and those who “somewhat” disapprove of a Biden presidency (50%-39%).
At the same time, Trump was among white voters (51%-43%), male voters (51%-42%), white voters without college degrees (60%-35%) and rural voters (68%-26%). ) has an advantage.
When a contest is assumed between Biden and DeSantis, the two are each at 47 percent.
“Looking back at 2020, this election was a referendum on Donald Trump,” said Democratic pollster Horwitt. “If there is a rematch between Biden and Trump, there are strong indications that the focus will be more focus on Trump, not Biden.”
Concerns about Biden and Trump
Still, surveys show that a majority of registered voters are concerned about both Biden and Trump.
68% of voters are concerned that Biden does not have the mental and physical fitness to be president, with 55% saying they have “significant” concerns – a sharp increase from the last time the question was asked during the 2020 election rise.
By contrast, 55 percent said they were concerned about Trump’s physical and mental health, including 44 percent who said they were seriously concerned.
Sixty percent of voters are concerned about Biden being re-elected and serving another four years in the White House, with 46% saying they have significant concerns.
Fifty-eight percent said they were concerned about Trump being re-elected and serving another four years, with 51 percent having major concerns.
Other findings from the poll
- Biden’s job approval rating among all registered voters was 43% in favor and 53% against, roughly unchanged from April.
- A total of 44 percent of registered voters said they would “definitely” or “likely” consider voting for a third-party or independent presidential candidate if other candidates included Biden and Trump. That’s higher than polls suggested in the 2008 and 2012 cycles, but down slightly from the 46 percent who said they would consider third-party candidates in 2016.
- Looking ahead to the 2024 congressional elections, 48% of registered voters want Democrats to control Congress, while 46% of registered voters want Republicans to control Congress.This is also in the same region as the last time this question was asked In the January 2023 NBC News Pollwhen 47% wanted Republicans to control Congress, while 46% wanted Democrats to control Congress.
The NBC News poll was conducted June 16-20 and included 1,000 registered voters — 831 of whom were reached by cellphone — with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The poll of 500 Republican primary voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.