The blossoming US-Indian romance | Financial Times

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Britons love to talk about their “special relationship” with the US. But America’s special relationship in the 21st century looks more and more like a relationship with India.

Joe Biden nearly said the same thing this week. The U.S. relationship with India is “one of the most important in the world,” the U.S. president told a news conference after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington this week.

As with many flourishing romances, it took a third party to bring the couple together — in this case, China. Both the United States and India are concerned about the rise of Chinese power, which has brought the two countries closer.

Washington is so focused on the deteriorating relationship between the United States and China that it is easy to ignore the more sharp decline in relations between India and China. The United States is still debating whether to kick TikTok. But India has already done it, even though the Chinese app has hundreds of millions of users in India. There are no longer direct flights between India and China. Beijing has also left no Indian journalists behind after a round of tit-for-tat deportations.and only oneIf anything, Chinese journalists have left Delhi. Meanwhile, the border dispute between India and China continues – with 50,000 troops deployed on both sides of the border.

As for the US, it is seeking to reduce its economic dependence on China and increasingly sees India as an “alternative to China”. As the only country in the world with a population of over 1 billion, India appears to have enormous untapped potential – both as a market and as a production base. Major announcements made during Modi’s visit – India’s purchase of Boeing planes, and US firm Micron’s investment in a new Indian semiconductor factory – highlighted India’s potential and fueled excitement.

People-to-people and cultural exchanges are also booming. Some of America’s most prominent CEOs hail from India, including Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Alphabet’s Sundar Pichai and IBM’s Arvind Krishna Arvind Krishna.

But as with many early relationships, some caution may be warranted. In fact, there are a few words of warning.

First, it is not entirely correct to see India as a ready-made alternative to China in terms of economy and market. In 1990, the Chinese and Indian economies were roughly equal in size. But today, China’s economy is five times the size of India’s. The level of education and infrastructure in China is far ahead of India.

When it comes to politics, India’s greatest calling card is its claim to be “the world’s largest democracy”. But most political freedom rankings in India have regressed in recent years. In speaking to colleagues in the Indian press and academia, there is no doubt that many are intimidated by the current political and intellectual climate. Some people lost their jobs.

The third issue is a strategic issue. India may be a partner of the US, but it is definitely not an ally. The fact that India continued to buy Russian oil and arms during the Ukraine war has drawn much ire from Washington.

Indians sometimes protest that they cannot sever ties with Russia for national security reasons. About 80% of India’s weapons and equipment are purchased from Russia. In case of war with China, India will depend on Russia for spare parts or ammunition. But Indians also have to realize that Russia itself is now very dependent on China too. There is certainly a question of whether Moscow would actually supply India with the ammunition it needs in the event of a conflict with China.

That’s why one of the biggest long-term US-India strategies is to sell more weapons to Delhi. Several major deals were announced during Modi’s visit. This has economic and strategic benefits for the United States. The military-industrial complex (yes, it exists) will benefit from the contract. And, a decade from now, India will be less dependent on Russia and more integrated into the US military ecosystem.

Both the U.S. and India increasingly see the relationship as a long-term one, and both sides are ready to invest in each other (literally and metaphorically) in hopes of reaping benefits over the years.

But what do you think, Brooke? Will all these hopes come true? Or, as the loving couple grows comfortable with the relationship, will they discover more uncomfortable truths about each other?

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Brooke Masters responds

Gideon, I think you are absolutely right to focus on the relationship between the US and India. It really feels like a big step forward in the relationship between the two countries. What has struck me over the past few weeks is how many top US fund managers and executives have spontaneously expressed their growing focus on India. I’m not talking to top bankers and CEOs when American businesses first forged deep ties to China, but I’m told today that some of the talk about India’s market size, consumption potential and growing openness to Western investment sounds very resemblance.

There is definitely a caveat here. The American and European dream that industrialization and economic growth would lead countries to become more like Western capitalist democracies has repeatedly been dashed. Modi has made clear that he, like Chinese leaders before him, is seeking access to American technology and investment to help his country develop. But India is an enormously complex society, thwarted by generations of Western efforts to force it to choose sides. The Chinese government has also resisted efforts by Western multinationals to force their way into its market. The mood music is different now, but who knows how long that will last. Relationship advice columnists always advise that couples at first attraction take time to build trust before they start sharing bank accounts or buying property together. The same is true for countries contemplating deep economic and political ties.