Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023.
Stringer | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Yevgeny Prigozhin Taking advantage of his close relationship with the Russian president vladimir putin Get rich and build a private army—then march it to Moscow amazing challenge On the terms of his former boss.
The leader of the Wagnerian mercenary group now appears to have given up the rebellion and gone into exile in Belarus, a deal that leaves more questions than answers.
“Prigorzhin thinks this is over, That would be naive.”
Here’s the man behind the biggest rebellion in Russia’s post-Soviet history, who has emerged from prison to lead a military insurrection less than a hundred miles from Moscow.
Who knows what will happen next.
How did Prigozhin shape Wagner?
Prigozhin, 62, is a Putin-like St. Petersburg native whose biography is one of the most diverse among the Kremlin elite.
He admitted to serving 10 years in prison as a young man, but did not say why. He then grew a hot dog stand into an upscale restaurant chain, eventually catching the attention of the Russian president and winning lucrative contracts to cater for public schools and Kremlin events, earning him the title of “Putin’s Chef”. ” nickname.
Over time, Prigozin fulfilled Putin’s various other needs.
The Russian leader has been trying to wield influence around the world — from its eastern European neighbors to the Middle East and Africa — and Prigozhin has helped him do just that.
He founded Wagner around 2014, according to one of Prigorzhin’s early recruits into the mercenary group.
The Kremlin just seized territory in Ukraine crimea peninsula And it has set its sights on the eastern Donbas region, where conflict is brewing after mass protests in Kiev toppled the pro-Russian government. Suddenly, Putin had a war on his hands, but he didn’t want to send in regular troops, he didn’t want to conscript, and he didn’t want to face the possibility of the Russians returning home in body bags.
So Prigozhin offered a solution.
He created a force of undesirables, people with military experience or a history of violence, who were looking for work and who might be less likely to be missed if they were killed. Wagner’s early actions in Ukraine, where the conflict continues, met with moderate success without resistance from the Russian public.
The Kremlin has long denied any official military presence in eastern Ukraine, and while Prigozhin has previously dismissed claims that he has links to Wagner, he acknowledged on social media last year that he created the group in 2014 and was involved in of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Prigozin’s next mission is getting more attention, especially from the US
He founded the Internet Research Agency, the bot farm that interfered in the 2016 US presidential election, polluting social media with disinformation, lies and doubts about the legitimacy of the electoral process.Whether it influenced the election result remains an open question, but the U.S. intelligence community pointed to it Sanctions on Prigozhinwho said last year He meddled in the US election and will continue to do so.
Russia’s involvement in the war in Syria.Putin wants to support the president Bashar al-Assad And fighting Western-backed insurgents, but again, official Russian casualties were few. There, Wagner was again instrumental in his efforts, whose fighters remain in the Middle Eastern country many years later.
As an entrepreneur, Prigorzhin also expanded his business into Africa.
inside central african republicPrigozin found that if Wagner supported the weak government and helped it suppress the rebellion, the group could help itself gain access to the impoverished country’s resources, mainly gold and blood diamonds.
Now, the man who started over with a hot dog stand has a battle-tested, disinformation-savvy army and, perhaps most importantly, his own independent source of funding.
From Bachmut to Moscow: What sparked the rebellion?
along with full scale invasion When Prigo is elected president of Ukraine in 2022, he is able and eager to prove his worth to Putin again.
Wagner’s mercenaries came in handy in the bloodiest of battles when the Russian army met unexpectedly strong resistance.To consolidate their ranks, Prigozhin turn to a place he is familiar withpromising freedom to inmates in Russian prisons if they can survive at the front for more than six months.
Wagner has led battles in several major Ukrainian cities, including BuckmutThe eastern city became an important symbolic prize for Putin. claimed to have seized Thousands of people paid the price last month.
While Prigozhin’s claim that his mercenaries are a game-changer for Ukraine has gradually entered the public eye, he has increasingly clashed with Moscow’s military establishment.
Prigozhin has used his well-oiled social media machine to become a leading voice for hardliners and influential pro-war figures critical of the Kremlin’s approach to the war.
He accused the Ministry of Defense and its chief Sergei Shoigu of downplaying Wagner’s role and withholding supplies from his fighters sufficient ammunitionwhile blaming “incompetent” military leadership for Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Moscow has given all private mercenaries to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by July 1, but Prigozhin has refused, and the feud between the two sides has escalated.
A standoff ensued, with Prigozhin launching an armed rebellion on Friday after claiming Russian troops had opened fire on his mercenaries.
While Putin initially seemed happy to let the internal squabble continue, it seems even the Russian leader may have underestimated Prigozin’s strength and boldness.
“I think what really drove his decision to make the frantic rush to Moscow was the order earlier this month,” Horowitz said, referring to the requirement for his fighters to sign Department of Defense contracts. Horowitz said Prigozhin saw this as a prelude to “dismantling” the private army he had worked so hard to build over the years.
It was a signal to the mercenary chief that “Putin is on the side of his enemies,” he said, adding that Prigozhin “may feel that, in the long run, his own security is not safe.” No guarantees, if he doesn’t act, his safety is at stake.” Eventually (at best) marginalized or dead. He has nothing to lose. “
Prior to the insurgency, U.S. intelligence agencies had gathered information about Prigozhin’s plans to challenge senior Russian military leaders and briefed congressional leaders about it last week, a person familiar with the matter told NBC News. They added that intelligence indicated that Wagner had been building up troops and weapons, although the intelligence was not definitive.
What should we do now?
Ultimately, it’s unclear what Prigozhin gained.
He said on Saturday he was less than 120 miles from the Russian capital but had decided to divert troops “to avoid bleeding Russia”.
The Kremlin said Prigozhin would face no charges and would travel to Belarus, whose leader Aleksandr Lukashenko apparently helped broker the deal.
The big unanswered question is what will happen to his Wagnerian forces?
The Kremlin said it would not prosecute fighters involved in the insurgency, and Wagner’s forces could still sign contracts with the Defense Department if they wanted to.
Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. Army Europe, said an estimated 25,000 Wagner fighters could be dispersed among regular Russian troops “under suspicion.”
As for Prigorzhin himself, the true nature of resolving the crisis remains unknown, as does the future of Wagner’s chief executive.
But Putin, who is known not to allow his enemies to live peacefully in exile, has described Prigozhin as a traitor, suggesting that he, like many analysts, sees the insurgency as a direct threat to his rule.
“Going to Belarus might be an option — he seems to know and trust Lukashenko very well — but he would still be at risk there,” Horowitz said. “My best bet is that he will continue to Conducting business in Ukraine rather than Belarus because he can justify keeping relative freedom among those loyal to him.
“But either way, he’s either going too far, or not going far enough, and he’s cornering himself,” Horowitz said. Louder, he will be an even bigger burden for Moscow.”