Members of Wagner’s team watch from a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don on the evening of June 24, 2023.
Roman Romerhoff | AFP | Getty Images
The recent Wagner rebellion has exposed deep divisions within the Russian military, raising questions about what it means for mercenary fighters and the war in Ukraine.
On June 24, within a few chaotic hours, the Wagner Group sent an armored convoy to the Russian capital, launching an apparent rebellion. Many see it as the biggest challenge to the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin in more than two decades in power.
However, the short-lived rebellion was abruptly called off when Wagnerian boss Yevgeny Prigorzhin agreed to de-escalate the situation and ordered his fighters to return to Moscow.
The aftermath has many observers questioning the future of the Wagner Group in Europe and globally, with regard to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Institute for War Research explain In the latest assessment of the Russia offensive, the Kremlin may seek to formally take control of the Wagner Group and turn it into a state-owned enterprise, although it is unclear whether that is the Kremlin’s intention.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with soldiers at the Kremlin in Moscow, June 27, 2023.
Mikhail Tereshenko | AFP | Getty Images
“Wagner’s nationalization may contribute to the efforts of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to integrate existing Wagner personnel into the regular Russian armed forces by contract,” the ISW said on Thursday.
“The Kremlin has not indicated its intention to nationalize Wagner, and Putin may not yet have identified a course of action to bring the organization more firmly under Kremlin control.”
Putin said Tuesday that members of Wagner’s mercenary group are fully state-funded and supplied. It was the first time the long-serving Russian president has publicly acknowledged that the group was funded by the Kremlin.
The ISW also noted that the latest satellite imagery collected between June 15 and 27 appears to show active construction at Arsipovich’s presumed new Wagner base in Belarus. The think tank said the site was less than 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from a large combined arms training ground in Belarus.
However, it added that Wagner personnel could be deployed elsewhere in Belarus and that there was “nothing particularly unique” about Wagner’s potential base in Azipovich.
Prigioren of the Wagner Group arrived in Belarus on Tuesday, shortly after he agreed to leave Russia, brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. Belarus is an ally of Russia in Putin’s war on Ukraine.
What’s next for Wagner’s fighters?
The Pentagon has since explainHowever, the US continued to see “some members” of the Wagner Group in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.
“In terms of the future of the Wagner Group, that’s really the best issue for Russia to resolve, of course, Russia … funding the Wagner Group and how to use them for the rest of this conflict and the rest of the world, because … … they also operate in Africa and Syria,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Thursday.
Bangui, Central African Republic – March 22, 2023: A Russian flag hangs over the monument to Russian instructors in Bangui during a march in support of Russia and China’s presence in Central African Republic. The Wagner Group has been active in the country since 2018, supporting the government of President Faustin-Archanche Touadera and filling the security vacuum left by France.
BARBARA DEBOUT/AFP (Getty Images)
Asked at a news conference how many Wagner militants were currently active in Ukraine after last weekend’s uprising, Ryder said some troops from the mercenary group were still in the country, but declined to provide a rough figure.
“It’s something we’ll continue to focus on. It’s too early to tell,” Ryder said.
“In all my analysis of what might happen next, I see a danger of missing the forest for the trees,” Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC by phone.
Granville said the fighting in Ukraine must remain focused, noting that Putin’s political future depends on the outcome of the war. “At the end of the day, that’s what it is,” he added.
Granville said that after the rebellion, the Wagner Group could at best be a “shadow of its predecessor” in Ukraine.
Russia’s political crisis
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed questions about the political crisis on Friday.
According to Reuters, Lavrov told a news conference that Moscow always becomes stronger and more resilient in the face of any difficulties. He added that if the West had doubts about Russia’s stability, that was their problem.
Elsewhere, General Sergei Surovkin, the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, is believed to have been detained following Wagner’s rebellion. Associated Press report on Thursday, citing two people familiar with the matter and a Ukrainian intelligence assessment.
CNBC could not independently verify the report. On this occasion, intense speculation arose as to whether Surovkin played a role in the Wagner uprising.
Alexei Melnikov, Secretary of the Russian Public Monitoring Committee be rejected Surovkin is being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo pretrial detention center or any other temporary detention facility, state news agency TASS reported.
James Nixie of the Chatham House think tank in London explain In a report outlining a sustainable and just end to the war in Ukraine, potential political instability in Russia “should not be an obstacle to suppressing Ukrainian dominance”.
“The fact that the Wagner Group failed to defect … shows that domestic unrest can provide Ukraine with a tactical advantage,” Nixy said on Thursday.
His comments echoed those of other analysts focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, with some suggesting Ukrainian forces could take advantage of dislocations in Russia’s military leadership.