As Russia’s incursion into Ukraine continues unabated, much-lauded NATO unity is under fresh pressure as leaders meet for their annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania this week.
The world’s largest security alliance is struggling to reach a deal to admit Sweden as its 32nd member. Military spending by member states lags behind long-term goals. The inability to reach a compromise over who should be the next NATO leader has forced the current secretary-general to extend his term for another year.
Perhaps the most difficult question is how Ukraine fits into NATO. Some insist that Ukraine will fulfill promises made years ago and be a necessary step to stem Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. Others feared it would be seen as provocative and could escalate into a wider conflict.
“I don’t think it’s ready to join NATO,” President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview that aired Sunday. Joining NATO requires countries to “fulfil all the qualifications from democratization to a range of other issues,” he said.
He said the U.S. should provide Ukraine with long-term security assistance — “self-defense capabilities” — as it did Israel.
Learn more about Russia’s war on Ukraine:
Quarrels between friends are not uncommon, and the current spat pales in comparison to past concerns about Donald Trump turning his back on alliances during his presidency. But the current challenge comes at a time when Biden and his peers have invested heavily in demonstrating harmony among members.
Douglas Lute, the U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, said: “Any rift, any lack of unity will open up opportunities for those who oppose the alliance.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been eager to exploit differences as he struggles to make progress in Ukraine and faces domestic political challenges, including the aftermath of a brief insurgency by Wagner’s mercenary group.
“You don’t want to come up with any vacancies,” Root said. “You don’t want any gaps or seams.”
In some ways, the Ukraine war has revitalized NATO, which was formed early in the Cold War as a bulwark against Moscow. NATO members injected military equipment into Ukraine to help it counterattack, and Finland also ended its non-aligned history and became the 31st member of NATO.
“I think all the successes should be looked at,” Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky told The Associated Press. “So I think the invasion strengthened NATO — it’s the exact opposite of what Putin expected.”
He pointed to Germany’s shift to a stronger defense policy and increases in other countries’ military spending.
In the latest test of NATO’s unity, Biden on Friday called supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions a “difficult decision.” More than two-thirds of coalition members have banned the weapon because of its track record of causing many civilian casualties. The United States, Russia and Ukraine are not among the more than 120 countries that have not yet signed the treaty banning the use of bombs.
As for the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, the alliance said in 2008 that Kiev would eventually become a member. Since then, little has been done to make it happen. Putin seized parts of Ukraine in 2014 before attempting to invade Ukraine in 2022 to capture the capital.
“A gray area is a green light for Putin,” said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland and now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
The United States and Germany insist that the focus should be on supplying Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, rather than taking the more provocative step of formally inviting it to join NATO. Countries on NATO’s eastern flank – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – want firmer guarantees of future membership.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also pushing for that goal. During a visit to the Czech Republic on Thursday, he said the “ideal” outcome of the Vilnius summit would be to invite the Czech Republic to the alliance.
NATO may decide to upgrade ties with Ukraine, creating a so-called NATO-Ukraine Council and giving Kiev a seat for consultations.
Also in the spotlight in Vilnius is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is the main obstacle to Sweden’s attempt to join NATO with neighboring Finland.
Erdogan has accused Sweden of being too tolerant of anti-Islam demonstrations and Kurdish armed groups that have waged a long-running insurgency in Turkey.
Sweden recently amended its anti-terrorism legislation and lifted its arms embargo on Turkey. But last week, a man burned a copy of the Koran outside a Stockholm mosque, which Erdogan suggested would pose another obstacle. He equates “those who allow a crime” with those who commit it.
Turkey and the United States are also at an impasse over the sale of F-16 fighter jets. Erdogan wants to upgrade the planes, but Biden said Sweden’s NATO membership must be resolved first.
This is not the first time Erdogan has sought to use a NATO summit to benefit Turkey. He delayed the nomination of Anders Fogh Rasmussen as secretary-general in 2009, but agreed to the move after securing some senior positions in the league for Turkish officials.
Max Bergman, head of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official, said discontent with Erdogan was growing among allies because of concerns about his relationship with Putin, democratic regression and evasion of sanctions.
“They try to be good,” Bergman said. “The question is whether now is the time to become more confrontational.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also delayed his country’s plans to approve Sweden’s accession. In response, Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, the Republican leader on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, blocked a $735 million arms sale to Hungary.
“We don’t want members who aren’t interested in doing everything possible to strengthen the union rather than pursue their own or personal interests,” Rish said. “I’m just tired of it.”
But he denied that the differences were a sign of weakness within NATO.
“These things always come up in the league,” he said. “The fact that we have been able to and will continue to engage with them is a testament to the most successful and powerful military alliance in the history of the world.”
At least one potential conundrum was not on the summit agenda. Instead of seeking consensus on a new NATO leader, members agreed to extend the term of Jens Stoltenberg, who has held the post since 2014, by a year. This is his fourth extension.
Most members want a woman to be the next secretary-general, with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen seen as the favorite. But Poland insisted on choosing a candidate from the Baltic states, as the Nordics have already had two consecutive secretary-generals. (Stoltenberg is Norway’s prime minister and Rasmussen is Denmark’s.)
Others were skeptical about accepting nominations from the Baltic states, whose leaders tend to take a more provocative approach to Russia, including backing Ukraine’s desire to join NATO quickly.
NATO is more divided over its latest plans for any possible Russian invasion of allied territory. The revision, the biggest since the Cold War, could involve “a lot of arm wrestling and card trading,” said Skip Davis, a former NATO official and now a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“This is an issue that will generate tension and dissent, and that’s not what the Vilnius summit was about,” he said.