Tom Lee, who correctly called a stock market rally after a weaker-than-expected inflation report in June, said the S&P 500 could hit a record high soon — but on one condition. “A lot of people think a recession is coming, and I think earnings season really gives us an idea, and we’ll know that in the next few weeks,” Lee, founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said on CNBC’s “Bell.” Overtime. “If a recession isn’t looming, then I think a lot of people are offside, and that’s what’s driving the market to new all-time highs.” Earnings season kicks off this week. PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines will report on Thursday, and JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will all report on Friday. The widely followed strategist predicted on Monday that the S&P 500 could rise as much as 100 points after weaker-than-expected inflation data. The call proved correct, as the consumer price index The surprise drop sparked Wednesday’s rally.”So far it looks like (the Fed) has achieved a soft landing. Businesses became cautious last year when they were telegraphing big rate hikes and intending to be aggressive, so we don’t necessarily trip up businesses, which is what usually creates a recession,” Lee said. Lee recently moved the S&P 500 The index’s year-end target was raised to 4,825, which would take the benchmark to a record high. His forecast was also well above the average Wall Street strategist’s year-end forecast, according to the CNBC Pro Market Strategists Survey, which aggregates the forecasts of the top 15 strategists. 4,227. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 4,796.56 in early January 2022. The latest inflation data may give the Fed some breathing room as it looks to reduce inflation, which is running at a whopping 9% annual rate in 2022. June 2022 , the highest level since the early 1980s. Still, the strategist warned of the risk of inflation rising again. “We cannot allow inflation to persist, burn and explode again. Fortunately, consumers didn’t expect that, but I think the Fed can breathe a sigh of relief that the economy hasn’t been destroyed,” Lee said.