Rishi Sunak is facing a landslide general election defeat because he is seen as “spineless and false” and makes people “cringe”, according to a top pollster.
The verdict came as a major new survey indicated that Labour is heading for a repeat of Tony Blair’s crushing victory over the Tories in 1997.
Conservative alarm at the results – allied to a fresh split over the controversial Rwanda bill – prompted speculation that the Tories could face their third leadership contest in less than 18 months.
Right-wingers are vowing to vote against the government this week if Mr Sunak refused to toughen his legislation – with one telling The Independent that the chances of a seismic defeat that could end his time at No 10 are “under-priced”.
The Tory leader was left reeling as a YouGov poll of 14,000 voters found Labour would achieve a stunning 120-seat Commons majority if the election place today.
And the PM’s hopes of improving his plummeting ratings suffered another blow as details of the devastating findings of a separate survey emerged.
Focus group research, carried out by JL Partners, found that members of the public now regard Mr Sunak with barely concealed contempt.
Words commonly used to describe him by the focus group, conducted last week, included “limp, spineless, out of touch, full of himself and false”. Mr Sunak – once known as ‘Dishi Rishi – was also said to make voters “cringe”.
James Johnson of JL Partners told The Independent: “The way to win elections in 2024 is by being the strong man. People value plain speaking in a leader more than managerial style competence.
“The reason they liked Sunak so much as chancellor in the pandemic was because he stepped up to the plate and stood up to Boris Johnson at times. That is not how he comes across any more,” added the former No 10 pollster.
Mr Johnson had some blunt advice for Sunak’s team: “They appear to think he is as popular as he was during the pandemic, posting jolly videos of him on social media. He isn’t. They could make a start by stopping pretending he is a rock star and banning him from smiling.”
Despite Sir Keir Starmer’s party’s huge poll lead the focus group verdict on the Labour leader personally was only slightly better. Common reactions to him were “Sir Flip Flop”, a “people pleaser”, “says what people want to hear” and “no plan”.
Mr Johnson said: “Starmer is winning more by accident, because voters are so fed up with the Conservatives and because he isn’t Jeremy Corbyn, than out of any genuine enthusiasm for him.”
The landmark YouGov survey of 14,000 people put found that the Tories were headed for as few as 169 seats, while Labour would sweep into power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a massive 120-seat majority.
The survey, commissioned by Tory donors working with arch-Brexiteer David Frost, also predicts that chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be one of 11 cabinet ministers to lose their seats, in what would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906.
Mr Sunak played down the sobering results during a visit to Essex, telling broadcasters: “The only one that matters is the one when the general election comes.”
Sir Keir told his troops to “ignore” the poll in a bid to keep complacency at bay. “We have to earn every vote, respect every vote and we should always, always, fight like we’re 5 per cent behind.”
Tory Lord Frost, a leading critic of Mr Sunak’s leadership, described the poll’s findings as “stunningly awful” and said the party was facing “a 1997-style wipe-out – if we are lucky”.
Senior Tory rebel Simon Clarke pounced upon the dire YouGov polling to warn that the party could be “destroyed” at the general election unless it takes tougher action on small boats.
Vowing to vote against Mr Sunak’s Rwanda bill if the PM does not accept right-wing amendments, Mr Clarke told the BBC: “I’ve been clear with the whips, if the bill goes forward unamended I will be unable to offer it my support.”
Almost 60 right-wingers have now backed amendments by ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick, with votes on the proposed changes to come on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As well as trying to block any role for the European court in deportation cases, Mr Jenrick and others have demanded that Mr Sunak restricts the grounds on which illegal migrants can bring claims.
It would take just 29 Tory MPs to overturn Mr Sunak’s 56-seat parliamentary majority and defeat the government at the final Commons vote on Wednesday.
Hardliners in the New Conservatives and the European Research Group (ERG) met on Monday to discuss their amendments ahead of the crucial third reading showdown.
One senior right-wing Tory MP involved in the discussions said there was a “growing feeling it is better not to have any bill than a bill that doesn’t work”.
And John Hayes, chair of the Common Sense Group, told The Independent: “There is significant support for the amendments – it’s more than I think the government were anticipating. I’m hopeful the government will listen.”
But another senior Tory MP – a hardliner on immigration – said the rebellion would “fade away in the end”. They added: “Most realise to defeat the government to bring down one of its major policies on this would be political madness. We’re only months away from an election.”
Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries said the YouGov poll shows why the party should bring back Boris Johnson. “Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore,” she said on X.
And Zac Goldsmith, another staunch ally of Mr Johnson, added sarcastically: “Thank God for those clever-clog ‘Tory grandees’ who got rid of Boris … Genius.”
But Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s former chief of staff at No 10, fired back: “The party was on course to lose under Johnson. By the time Sunak took over, the situation was probably irrecoverable.”