While von der Leyen has won a key battle for centrist forces, stalwart allies such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, normally the twin engines that propel the EU, are politically weakened following dismal election results in their respective countries. Macron’s France is especially febrile following his decision to call a snap election in recent weeks after dissolving his country’s parliament.
“We have a very weakened Macron. We have at least for probably another year a rather weak German chancellor … So the question is: How much can von der Leyen fill in at this point?” asked Nicolai von Ondarza, a political scientist at the German Institute for International & Security Affairs.
Compounding the lack of support she’s being given by her traditional EU allies is open hostility from within the bloc via right-wing populists such as Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Le Pen in France. Orbán is styling himself as the leader of von der Leyen’s opposition.
The hard right leaders promise to resist as von der Leyen tackles the number one challenge of her second term: making huge amounts of EU money available to reindustrialize and re-arm the EU.
Aides to von der Leyen insist she has the benefit of experience to deal with what’s coming. But, in a town known for speaking in bureaucratese, other EU officials are surprisingly blunt about her challenges
“Everything that costs anything — for example, Ukraine defense,” will prove “problematic” during von der Leyen’s second term, said one senior EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak freely.
Her experience of navigating politics didn’t come until later in life. Before entering German politics for the first time in her thirties, von der Leyen had a stint in California, as she focused on obtaining a medical doctorate and raising seven children with her husband, Heiko von der Leyen.
Overcoming initial skepticism both at home and in Brussels, she established herself during her first term as a no-nonsense leader, running an institution with some 32,000 staff with a firm grip.
However, her reliance on a small cadre of aides angered many EU leaders who felt they should have been consulted more.
The coming five years promise to test this approach. Will she need to build more alliances with other EU leaders if she’s to resist the forces of populism and keep the bloc united in the face of the challenges ahead? Is she even capable of reaching out to bring more people inside the tent in that way?
Von der Leyen will also be tested in areas where she is arguably weakest: Her ability to shout as loud as Trump and Orbán and strike deals with leaders who want to undermine her agenda.
Nevertheless, there was never any real alternative to von der Leyen as Commission president. After tense negotiations with political factions in the European Parliament, which she led — as usual — by herself, accompanied by Seibert, she sailed to a larger majority than she had in 2019.
After winning the vote to confirm her second term, von der Leyen gave a press conference at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. It had been an intense day after a long campaign, following a five-year period that few Western leaders survived with their credibility intact.
Perhaps it wasn’t surprising that she stumbled while giving an answer to a journalist’s question about the future of the combustion engine. “Sorry,” she said. “I’m tired.”