Yahya Sinwar (center), the Palestinian leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, greets people during an event commemorating the 35th anniversary of Hamas in Gaza City on December 14, 2022.
Ali Jadallah | Anatolia | Getty Images
Hamas on Tuesday appointed Yahya Sinwar as leader of its political wing following the assassination of former political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
That makes Sinwar – a man with a reputation for ruthlessness who is widely believed to have masterminded the Oct. 7 attack – the most powerful man in the group and its face in international diplomacy.
“The most extreme elements of Hamas were implemented on October 7th… and are now officially in power,” Michael Horowitz, geopolitical analyst and director of intelligence at risk management firm Le Beck International, said on X one post read.
The Middle East has been on edge since Haniyeh was killed in Iran on July 31, with Iran and Hamas blaming Israel for the incident. Israel has remained silent on the matter, while Iran has promised some form of retaliatory attack on the Jewish state.
At the same time, Haniyeh's killing gives Hamas a more extreme leader, which could push the Palestinian militant group in a direction unfavorable to ceasefire talks aimed at ending the war and freeing still-held prisoners of war. Israeli hostages in Gaza.
Qatar-based Haniyeh, Hamas's chief negotiator in ceasefire talks with Israel, has been described as more pragmatic and supportive of a deal. While talks have been going on for months without success, Sinwar – who is based inside Gaza and is said to have the final say on major Hamas decisions – has often stalled or cut off communications during negotiations.
Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at the consultancy Control Risks, told CNBC: “Sinwar’s nomination to the top position in Hamas — even though he is based in Gaza — bodes well for the movement’s stance. will be significantly tougher, especially in ceasefire negotiations.
The Palestinian leader “already had a very important voice in negotiations with Israel, but the difference now is that there will not be Ismail Haniyeh's relatively pragmatic voice to counterbalance Sinwar's uncompromising extremist views.
Still, his nomination is unlikely to change the dynamics of the ground war in Gaza because killing him remains Israel's top priority, Terry Cowder said. But it does deal a blow to efforts to achieve a lasting cessation of fighting and de-escalation in the region; analysts expect “high levels of instability in the region to continue for months.”
Lifelong struggle
Sinwar, 61, was born in a refugee camp in Gaza and has spent at least 22 years of his adult life in Israeli prisons. He was sentenced to life in prison in 1989 for commanding the killings of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he considered collaborators, and earned himself the nickname “The Butcher of Khan Younis” for hunting down Palestinians he suspected of collaborating with him. reputation.
However, he was released early in 2011 in a controversial prisoner swap in which more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners were exchanged for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas five years earlier. Gilad Shalit).
Sinwar later said in an interview that he used his time in prison to learn to speak, read and write Hebrew and to understand the psychology and behavior of his Israeli kidnappers. In 2015, he was designated a terrorist by the U.S. government, and in 2017, he was elected leader of Hamas.
On April 13, 2022, Yahya Sinwar hosted a meeting with leaders of Palestinian factions in his office in Gaza City.
Adel Khana | Associated Press
International Criminal Court May Indicates that an arrest warrant application is being submitted Sinwar and Haniyeh are guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity. It also filed for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galante for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Sinwar's elevation to Hamas's top job and the consequent merger of the political and military branches also complicates any potential plans for Gaza's “day after tomorrow,” for which the Israeli government has yet to come up with plans.
Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst, said in an email that the choice could “undermine (Hamas') legitimacy on the international stage.”
“In many ways, the separation of the military and political branches provides room for Hamas to try to negotiate a better hostage solution with Israel and secure its presence in a future Palestinian government,” he said. The future after the current war “This move will challenge that strategy. “
Sinwar is a top target for the Israeli military, having survived assassination attempts over the years and is believed to have spent much of the current war hiding in Gaza's intricate network of tunnels.
Ghanim Nusseibeh said this made Hamas's decision to appoint Sinwar as its leader risky, saying the group was “clearly gambling with an invisible leader.”
“But it's worse for Israel and the mediators,” said Nusseibeh, the London-based chair of Muslim Anti-Semitism and a regional commentator. “Good luck negotiating with the most extreme parts of Hamas, who are also invisible.”