If the history of soaring volatility is any indication, investors could be in for a tough time over the next two months, BofA Securities said. Bank of America found that two months after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged above 45, the S&P 500 typically moved lower. 65.73. This is the index's highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, when it jumped to 85.47, and its second highest level since a peak of 89.53 in late 2008. In the eight weeks following a surge in volatility, the S&P 500 rose only 40% of the time, with a median decline of 0.72%, Bank of America data showed. Typically, the broad market index gains 66%, with the median gain of 1.95%. “These SPX returns suggest it will take time for U.S. stocks to stabilize after the VIX spike,” Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at BofA Securities, wrote in a note. “It also suggests lower returns ahead of the presidential election, This is consistent with election year seasonality. ” .VIX YTD bar VIX It’s not all bad news so far this year, to be sure. The Vix has since fallen back to just below 20, a normal reading that suggests the market has returned to risk appetite, which may be unusual after last week's moves. Readings above 20 are considered bearish and indicate higher levels of fear and uncertainty in the market. Long-term investors are also likely to recoup their losses as volatility intensifies. About three months after the Vix surge, the broader market index was trading higher 80% of the time, with a median gain of 5.17%, according to Bank of America data. One year later, the S&P 500 is up 80%, with the median up 18.18%. That said, signs of recent market distress are emerging. The S&P 500 swung between gains and losses on Monday, struggling to keep up with the market recovery that emerged late last week, all but erasing the index's losses so far this week. If this market behavior is any indication, investors should prepare for a tougher road ahead.