On August 14, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers operated tanks on the road near the Russian border in the Sumy region of Ukraine. The largest offensive has been on Russian soil since World War II.
Roman Pilipe | AFP | Getty Images
It’s been more than a week since Ukraine launched its surprise invasion and operation in Russia’s Kursk region, and last week’s results may well have exceeded Kiev’s wildest expectations.
Ukraine's top military commander Alexander Silsky told Ukrainian President Zelensky on Tuesday that Ukrainian troops now occupy more than 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory and have captured 74 settlements.
Wednesday, President claims Ukrainian troops have moved further into RussiaStarting from that day, they advanced 1-2 kilometers and captured more than 100 Russian soldiers.
Ukraine appeared to take full advantage of its new offensive momentum, launching its largest drone strike yet on a Russian military airport on Thursday, destroying a drone used to launch glide bombs into Ukrainian frontline positions and cities, the General Staff said. Russian Su-34 jet said. CNBC could not independently verify Zelensky's or the military's claims.
Russia is furious over the first invasion of Russian territory by foreign troops since World War II. The attack was allegedly aimed at halting its rolling offensive in eastern Ukraine and destabilizing the country. Moscow officials also used the incursion to further attack Ukraine's Western backers.
On August 13, 2024, during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in the Sumy region, a Ukrainian military vehicle drove from the direction of the border with Russia, carrying a blindfolded man wearing a Russian military uniform.
Roman Pilipe | AFP | Getty Images
With a serious face Russian President Vladimir Putin vows 'worthy' revenge He initially described it as a “massive provocation.” But developments southwest of Kursk appear to have alarmed the Russian military command, which has yet to respond strongly to the incursion.
Geopolitical and defense analysts warn that a response will come, and while Kyiv can enjoy the success of its cross-border operations for now, it does need to plan for what happens next.
Whether Ukraine chooses to consolidate its territorial hold in Kursk or push forward — or to withdraw its troops while the situation remains favorable to protect lives and before a potentially violent Russian response — a decision needs to be made soon Decide.
“Ukraine advanced rapidly during the initial phase of the offensive and established defensive positions in the Kursk region,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe consultant at risk consultancy Teneo, said in a report on Wednesday. This phase seems to be coming to an end.
“While the first week of Kiev's offensive appears to have been successful from a military and political point of view, it still carries significant risks,” he noted, adding that the key was to see whether Ukrainian forces “will be able to manage to hold on to the occupied territories.” and control the occupied territories”. If necessary, withdraw troops and equipment with minimal losses. “
On August 13, 2024, during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian armored military vehicles drove out from the direction of the border with Russia in the Sumy region. On August 6, 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise attack in the Kursk region on the Russian border and occupied more than twenty towns and villages. This was the most serious cross-border attack on Russian territory since World War II.
Roman Pilipe | AFP | Getty Images
Tursa said the offensive was being carried out by experienced forces with advanced Western military equipment that appeared to have been withdrawn from the Ukrainian front lines.
“Their loss would have a negative impact on the country's defense capabilities and could be politically counterproductive, especially if the results of an invasion are not deemed worth the loss,” he warned.
Russia was shocked, but not for long
The audacity of Ukraine's cross-border attack appeared to take Russia by surprise last week when thousands of Ukrainian troops entered Kursk. Russian authorities in Kursk and neighboring Belgorod have launched evacuation plans, with some 300,000 residents affected by the measures. Both states have also declared states of emergency.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed in a daily report that it was repelling and defeating the Ukrainian offensive, even as it acknowledged that Ukrainian forces had penetrated 30 kilometers into Russian territory.
On Wednesday, the ministry said several ground and air forces as well as artillery and drone strikes “prevented enemy mobile armored forces from penetrating deep into Russian territory”.
A screenshot of the video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense showed that on August 12, the Russian army used a “Lancet” drone to launch a missile attack on a Ukrainian Armed Forces military tank located in the border area near Russia's Kursk Oblast.
Russian Ministry of Defense | Anadolu | Getty Images
Russia appears to be relying mainly on Russian conscripts and some personnel from regular and irregular military units drawn from less critical areas of Ukraine's eastern frontline to deal with the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, analysts at the Institute for War think tank said on Tuesday.
However, analysts warn that Russia's lackluster response to the Ukrainian invasion is unlikely to last long.
“In the coming days, Russia's so-called counterterrorism forces – made up of various internal security forces – are likely to step up efforts to liberate occupied territories. This could include resolving the dilemma of whether Russia should use heavy weapons within its own borders Territory,” noted Teneo’s Tulsa.
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank, said on Tuesday that “maintaining any size of force in Russia and defending against counterattacks will be difficult given the limited reserves available in Ukraine.” This has so far led to Russia's People have slowed the advance around Donbass, and the situation around Chasiv Yar and near Povrovsk remains difficult.
“Occupy” or retreat?
Ukrainian officials and defense analysts admit The purpose of invading Russia was to give Ukraine more bargaining power in future peace initiatives with Russia. The timing is important because former President Donald Trump may be re-elected and Ukraine may be pressured or forced to negotiate with its enemies and potentially make territorial concessions to end the war.
Retaining Kursk territory could therefore be a useful bargaining chip, although doing so could come at a high cost in the face of a more forceful and organized Russian response to an invasion.
President Zelensky appeared to hint at possible plans for a longer operation in Kursk, saying on Wednesday he had held a meeting on the security and humanitarian situation in Kursk and discussed “security, humanitarian assistance” and “if necessary,” he said on Telegram.
A senior Ukrainian official told CNBC this week that Kiev hopes that “if everything goes well[in Kursk]the presence of Ukrainian troops in Russia will be a force that changes the dynamics of the war and will increase our negotiating power” in a possible in the context of a peace initiative,” said the official, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the operation.
The official insisted that Ukraine had no intention of occupying or annexing parts of Russia but would seek to use its incursions to change the dynamics of the war, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
“This has nothing to do with Ukraine wanting to seize Russian territory. We believe the world understands that this is not about annexing parts of Russia. We don't need that territory. We just need them to leave our territory,” the official said. The official said Ukraine hopes to use its current status as “leverage” to “achieve a just peace more quickly.”
Ukrainian servicemen operate a Soviet-made T-72 tank in the Sumy region near the Russian border during Russia's invasion of Ukraine on August 12, 2024.
Roman Pilipe | AFP | Getty Images
Academic Taras Kuzio, a professor of political science at the National Academy of Sciences, said that “occupying” Russian territory ahead of any peace talks is seen as a way to put Ukraine in a more favorable bargaining position and may, to some extent, Reduce Putin's role in any future peace talks. wrote in an analysis on Tuesday.
He also noted that there are other possible benefits to occupying Kursk, as “the strip of Ukrainian-occupied land in the Kursk and Belgorod regions would prevent Russian artillery fire (and perhaps drone flights) against northeastern Ukraine.” , and blocking the supply lines of Russian occupying forces in Donbas, he added that the occupation of Ukraine could also provide bases for Russian opposition groups within Russia.
Ukraine's invasion of Russia is bold, risky, and likely to fail; such is the nature of war. But there have been benefits. Drip supply is a myth, and Putin has discovered once again that Ukraine's battle-hardened military remains a formidable force.