September is typically a tough month for Apple, and whether this year will be any different is an uncertain question. Apple is expected to announce new iPhone and Apple Watch models at a press conference on September 9 at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The tech giant typically unveils these new models at its fall launch event ahead of the holiday shopping season. FactSet analysis shows Apple shares tend to move higher as investor excitement builds ahead of product launches. But the stock's lowest average return occurs in the month of issuance. Over the past 10 years, Apple's stock price has fallen an average of 3.5% in September. Analysis shows that the average increase in July was 6.5%, and the average increase in August was 4.8%, followed by a retracement. Apple's stock price rose 3.1% in August and is up nearly 19% this year. Morgan Stanley analysts believe Apple's announcements this year could lead to better stock performance than historical data. That's partly because an upcoming event, which is likely to focus on the expected integration of Apple Intelligence into iPhone 16 models, could fuel demand for the company's highly anticipated artificial intelligence-related advancements. Analyst Erik Woodring wrote: “Historically, iPhone launches have been a news-selling event, with Apple slightly underperforming the market on the day of the iPhone launch, and in the three months following the launch, Apple's performance only slightly outperformed the market. “When Apple launched iPhone 16 on September 9, we didn't necessarily expect the market performance to be different, but we did see that with the launch of iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence. , Apple's performance through the end of the year is likely to be better than historical seasonality. Woodring said that historically, when the company's product replacement cycle is shortened, Apple stock will outperform the market. In fact, he expects that through fiscal 2026. The iPhone replacement cycle will shrink. Opportunity. He has an Overweight rating on the stock, with a price target of $273, suggesting potential upside of 19.2% from Friday's closing price. UBS, on the other hand. Analyst David Vogt has a neutral rating on the stock with a $190 price target, suggesting the stock could fall 17% next year, he said in a note on Tuesday that August is typically a month for consumers. Purchases of iPhone models were at their lowest in the month, adding that “the September launch is risky.” Apple’s iPhone sales in the third fiscal quarter accounted for approximately 46% of the company’s total sales. “If iPhone sales in August are approximately 14 million units, down approximately 3% (month-over-month), consistent with recent seasonality and a lack of channel fill, then September 24 sales would have to reach 22.6 million units to reach our target Expected goals.