ESPN photographers capture footage during a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals at EverBank Stadium on December 4, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida.
David Rosenblum | Illustrated Sports Line | Getty Images
In 2021, the National Football League signed an 11-year media rights agreement worth $111 billion. In July, the National Basketball Association itself signed an 11-year deal worth $77 billion.
What to do next? Well, not so fast.
While the Ultimate Fighting Championship and Formula One's deals are set to expire in 2025, the vast majority of major college and professional sports have recently signed long-term media rights deals with U.S. television networks and streamers.
Welcome to the downturn in sports media rights. In other words, the calm before the storm.
NFL can opt out of current agreements with all media partners — except disneywith a slightly different deal structure after the 2028-29 season. By then, the entire landscape could look very different than it is today, driven by the pace of change at the largest media companies, dramatically altering league revenue and payers.
“Anyone who tells you with any degree of certainty whether the NFL is going to opt out is crazy,” said Daniel Cohen, executive vice president of global media rights consulting at Octagon. “There are so many things you can’t predict even two years from now, let alone Said it’s been six years.”
The NFL's decision to withdraw, while still years away, is the next potential tectonic shift that will affect the balance of power in the media. The NFL may choose to terminate its deal with its longtime Sunday afternoon media provider, e.g. fox and Paramount Universal CBS supports streaming media such as apple, Amazon, Google's YouTube even Netflix.
This will also be an important driver of future NFL team valuations. On Thursday, CNBC will release the official 2024 NFL team valuation list, ranking all 32 professional teams.
media transformation
Given the current state of the media, Paramount Worldwide Agreed to merge with Skydance Media in mid-2025, Warner Bros. Discovery Actively seek partners to expand scale and share content costs, and Netflix With the acquisition of Christmas Day NFL games entering the live sports arena, potential bidders for games four to five years from now could look very different than they do today. That will determine how much money the NFL might get in its next broadcast rights deal.
“There may be companies that don't exist now that merge to form new competitive bidders,” said Neal Pilson, former president of CBS Sports and founder of sports media consulting firm Pilson Communications. Other deals, like the NBA, are just a data point, but the NFL is its own market. It's all driven by the popularity of the NFL.”
Another factor that will determine how much future sports media rights deals will escalate is the state of dwindling pay-TV packages. According to a recent report by MoffettNathanson, 4 million pay TV customers have been lost so far this year, “an incredible number in just six months.”
Live sports has long been the glue that binds everything together, with the majority of viewership still coming from traditional TV rather than streaming.
The economics of bundles – still a cash cow for content providers like Disney Comcast NBCUniversal — has been driving broadcast rights growth for decades. Meanwhile, most media companies have yet to make money on their streaming services.
Traditionally, the reach of broadcast networks, especially in rural areas that still don't have stable high-speed internet, has led the NFL to look to Fox, Disney, NBCUniversal and CBS — all of which own broadcast networks. Most NFL games are broadcast on NBC.
The NBA also replaced the Warner Bros. DiscoveryNBCUniversal does not own the broadcast network, NBCUniversal does.
But four years later, the ongoing shift toward streaming, coupled with the deep pockets of big tech companies, may leave the NFL viewing broadcasts as an anachronism rather than a necessity.
On the other hand, if a streamer becomes the sole distributor of sports events, they will have all the market power, which could depress valuations.
Shirin Malkani said: “If you put all your eggs in the basket of the streaming parties, and the traditional media is in trouble and can no longer pay the media rights fees, then you have given the streaming media A lot of market power.
rights lock
Bank of America recently compiled a chart of recent media rights deals and their estimated values. Some numbers differ slightly from those reported.
National Hockey League’s agreements with its media partners remain in effect Throughout the 2027-28 season.
The MLB deal is Rise in 2028 —The expiration of the players’ collective bargaining agreement in 2026 may have a bigger impact than the state of the media industry. Still, seismic shifts in the regional sports industry on top of the traditional TV landscape could make MLB a litmus test for subsequent rights deals.
PGA Tour media deal Lasts until 2030. Sign a contract Late last year it partnered with media operators until 2031. until 2031. Apple signs deal with Major League Soccer Until 2032.
The long-term nature of these deals brings some certainty to the current media ecosystem. This is a benefit for leagues, media companies and pay-TV providers, as they all rely on consistency in cash flow.
“My advice to clients is if you feel right now that the deal is fair, or fair to good from an analytical perspective, don't go looking for something great,” said The Octagon's Cohen, who represents Member of several professional sports leagues. “Things are going to evolve over the next six years, so it's better to keep a good deal.”
Revealed: Comcast-owned NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.
Tune in: CNBC will announce official 2024 NFL team valuations on air and online on Thursday, September 5.