Morgan Stanley said concerns about iPhone 16 delivery times could lead to Apple shares lower in the short term. While the investment bank noted that delivery times have doubled since Friday, they are still shorter than this time last year, which could increase the likelihood of a negative iPhone production revision and stock underperformance. Analyst Erik Woodring noted that in the past five December quarters when build revisions were lower, December quarter earnings per share revisions have also been revised lower by an average of 1.7%. This resulted in the stock underperforming by an average of 5 percentage points in the three months following the iPhone's launch. “What will be most important over the next 10 days is the trajectory of iPhone 16 delivery times, as historically iPhone delivery times have been extended leading up to the first in-store availability date (Friday, September 20) and then on subsequent It will gradually trend lower over several weeks,” analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “As such, continued extensions in iPhone 16 delivery times starting today should be viewed positively, while a sharp reversal in iPhone 16 delivery times after Friday could indicate a greater risk of a negative iPhone revision.” AAPL Year-to-date, Apple Stock It's up nearly 14% year to date, and at current trading levels, Woodring sees near-term downside support for the stock at $197. That represents a drop of more than 9% from Tuesday's closing price. With that in mind, the analyst said investors should buy the stock on any possible downward revisions to expectations. That’s because in his view, multi-year upgrades driven by artificial intelligence are a matter of “when, not if.” “Given that most bulls (ourselves included) view fiscal 2026 and iPhone 17 as the larger cycle—and recent iPhone 16 lead time data has little impact on that thesis—we view any downward revisions to expectations or near-term Underperformance is possible. As a result, Woodring has an Overweight rating on the stock, which implies about 26% upside. He also ranks Apple as a top pick. Views are unanimous. 48 analysts cover the stock, with 36 giving it a Strong Buy or Buy rating and 11 giving it a Neutral rating, implying an upside of about 11%, according to FactSet. , the stock's current expected price-to-earnings ratio is around 32.7.
Apple could fall to $200 on iPhone worries and that’s when you buy: Morgan Stanley
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