Some aren’t convinced of a soft landing

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Some aren’t convinced of a soft landing

Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange on September 18, 2024 in New York City.

Stephanie Keith | Getty Images

This report comes from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Dow Jones closes at new high
US market Friday was mixed. this Dow Jones Industrial Average Rally hits new highs, but S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index dropped. Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly higher on Monday. Chinese Shanghai Composite Index The People's Bank of China raises interest rates by around 0.5% Injected RMB 234.6 billion (USD 33.29 billion) Access to the banking system through open market operations.

India rejects RCEP
India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal told CNBC that India will not join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Signed in 2020 by 15 Asia-Pacific countries accounting for 30% of global GDP, RCEP is the world's largest trade agreement. Goyal said that “reaching a free trade agreement with China is not in the national interest.”

China's youth unemployment rate rises
China's youth unemployment rate, which tracks people aged 16 to 24, rose to 18.8% in August from 17.7% in July. The August figure was the highest since China started using a new interest rate indicator in December. As China's economy continues to slump, calls for the government to introduce stimulus measures are growing louder.

Qualcomm acquires Intel?
Qualcomm Recently contacted Intel for possible acquisitions. It was unclear whether negotiations were continuing or the terms of a possible deal, the sources said. Considering Intel's market capitalization of more than $90 billion, the deal, if successful, would be one of the largest technology acquisitions in history. Intel's business has struggled in recent years.

(PRO) How to Invest $1 Million
The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years will change the market competitive environment. Under these new conditions, where should investors allocate cash? CNBC Pro asked seasoned investors at wealth management firms how they would allocate $1 million based on three different risk profiles.

bottom line

The market seemed to acknowledge that the Fed’s sharp rate cut last week was because The central bank wants to keep the job market healthy.

On Friday, some doubts seemed to resurface.

fedex The company's shares plunged 15.2% after reporting first-quarter profit that missed expectations. This isn't just bad news for the company and its investors.

The trucking company is seen as an economic bellwether. The higher the overall demand, the more transportation services are needed. So when FedEx misses revenue estimates, one likely conclusion is that the economy is not performing as well as expected.

Some analysts are also increasingly concerned about economic and market conditions.

Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, pointed out that the current easing cycle echoes what happened in 2001 and 2007, when the Fed's first interest rate cut was also half a percentage point. But the first deep cuts couldn't avert the recession and global financial crisis of the early 2000s.

“On average, it takes 10 quarters after a rate hike for a recession to begin,” Lazar wrote. “This is the 10th quarter. Given the size of the rate hike and the shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, the unemployment rate is likely to Reach 6%.

In financial markets, financial firm BTIG believes a pullback is possible. But Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky said he was optimistic that “the weakness may be milder than we initially thought.”

Indeed, despite Standard & Poor's Down 0.19% Nasdaq Down 0.36% on Friday Dow Chemical rose 0.09%, hitting a new closing high. All three indexes ended the week in the green.

Last week's burst of optimism was largely driven by anticipation and celebration of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This week the market will focus on upcoming hard data such as second quarter GDP data, consumer confidence and PCE reports. They will provide more clues as to whether the cuts are a recalibration or a reaction.

–CNBC’s Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim and Brian Evans contributed to this article.

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