September 6, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; BYU Cougars coach Kalani Sitake watches during the first half of a game against SMU at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images As September comes to a close, we have a more focused look at the college football landscape.
A clearer picture provides some guidance on strategies to consider in week five.
BYU +3.5, Baylor (BetMGM, FanDuel, Bally, Bet Rivers)
Brigham Young University and Baylor University opened up their Big 12 Conference showdown at McLean Stadium, and Week 4 ended very differently. ’s loss, but BYU stomped on No. 13 Kansas State, 38-9.
However, Baylor held the title by just one point after the opening tip, and according to sources, the Bears were favored by either 3 or 3.5 points. Maybe the Cougars haven't shown enough to inspire public confidence. However, blowout wins against top-15 opponents and a performance against a quality SMU team that has traveled to Texas this season shows that BYU is legitimate.
To stay perfect and get the underdog win, the Cougars need to follow Utah's lead — not advice that anyone at BYU usually wants to follow. But in this case, it's the key to success.
Utah Charged Baylor with an early 23-0 advantage Back in Week 2, that was partly due to favorable field position. The Utes' two early touchdowns came from their own 44-yard line and from Baylor's 3-yard line after a fumble.
Early turnovers have dogged Baylor, with seven in four games. A goal-line fumble cost the Bears last week at Colorado State. Meanwhile, BYU enters Week 5 ranked tied for 15th nationally with eight takeaways.
Forcing some key turnovers and Jake Retzlaff's ability to attack a defense that gave up 341 passing yards a week ago should allow BYU to cover and pull off a resounding road win.
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RJ Harvey-110 2+ TDs vs. Colorado (DraftKings)
Speaking of Colorado's win over Baylor, the Buffs' rush defense isn't as much of a liability in 2024 as it was in 2023 — but that doesn't mean Colorado has turned into the 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide.
Colorado's first four opponents each rushed for at least 131 yards. With the exception of FCS opponent North Dakota State, every other team averaged over 4 yards per carry. Vulnerability to explosive runs is a specific issue for the Buffs' defense, which has given up two runs of 40 or more yards and five of 20 or more yards.
Facing what is by far the most productive rushing attack in the nation, various prop bets related to UCF's ground game might be worth considering. RJ Harvey's -110 with two or more touchdowns is probably the safest.
Harvey is one of three Cavaliers running backs averaging at least 6.6 yards per carry and 47 yards per carry, sharing touches with Penny Boone and Myles Montgomery. Harvey is the most reliable player of the trio, rushing 59 times and scoring eight touchdowns in three games.
Harvey's first touchdown of the game at +290 might also be a worthwhile play.
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Auburn, Oklahoma +1.5 (BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel)
Oklahoma State's SEC debut ended in failure, as the Sooners lost 25-15 to Tennessee State in a game that was even more lopsided than the final score. OU will have time to lick the wounds inflicted by former Sooners offensive coordinator Josh Heupel last week in due course; Oklahoma spends its time between visiting Auburn and a Red River rivalry game with No. 1 Texas Had a bye week.
The home loss exposed the inconsistency of Oklahoma State's offense, which when they have the ball, looks for a quicker defense against opponents in tougher predicaments.
Auburn's offense has been bullied by rivals Alabama A&M and New Mexico, but was shut down in losses to Cal and Arkansas. Last week, Payton Thorne and Hank Brown combined for four interceptions in a 24-14 SEC opening loss.
Thorne will start on Saturday, but he doesn't appear to have the trust of head coach Hugh Freeze. Freeze was critical of Auburn's quarterbacks after the loss at Arkansas, prompting fellow Mississippi State quarterback Bo Wallace to publicly criticize Auburn's coach.
With controversy lingering and Auburn having struggled to consistently score against SEC opponents since Freeze's first season, Oklahoma's talented defense should continue the Tigers' Offensive dilemma.
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