Traders work on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
This report comes from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Inflation lower than expected
Personal consumption expenditures price index in August It rose 0.1% this month. Prices rose 2.2% annually, below the 2.3% consensus forecast in a Dow Jones survey and July's 2.5% increase. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in August and increased 2.7% annually. Economists expected 0.2% and 2.7% respectively.
Chinese stock market surges
U.S. markets were mixed on Friday. this Dow Jones Industrial Average It was the only major index to gain, closing at another record high. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday. Chinese Shanghai Composite Index The stock market soared more than 8%, driven by gains in Chinese real estate stocks. Japanese Nikkei 225 Index Stocks fell about 4.7% as investors reacted to Friday's Liberal Democratic Party election results.
China factory activity shrinks less than expected
China's manufacturing purchasing managers index in September was 49.8 According to data Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. A number below 50 indicates contraction, meaning factory activity in China has shrunk for five consecutive months. Still, the reading was higher than the 49.5 expected by economists polled by Reuters.
implement oil production cuts
Two OPEC+ representatives, who could only comment anonymously due to sensitivity issues, told CNBC that the OPEC+ alliance is looking to crack down on members that do not comply with oil production cuts. The move comes after oil prices fell sharply after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia was preparing to take action. Drops $100 oil price target.
(PRO) Will the next month be unstable?
September has always been the worst month for stocks, but stocks have done surprisingly well this year. Still, October still poses a threat because it's the most volatile month for stocks, according to a CNBC Pro analysis of historical data. Friday's September non-farm payrolls report could be the first catalyst for price action.
bottom line
do you remember? The past four Septembers have not been easy for stocks; The S&P 500 fell at least 4%. Even as the broad-based index gained more than 24% during 2023, it fell 5% in September.
Not this time. although Standard & Poor's Down 0.13% Nasdaq Index After falling 0.39% on Friday, the two indexes gained about 0.6% and 1% respectively this week. this Dow Jones Industrial Average The performance was even more impressive, rising 0.33% for the sixth consecutive trading day and closing at another record high.
The three major U.S. stock indexes have risen for three consecutive weeks so far. With only one trading day left in the month, they are almost certain to end September in the black.
Positive sentiment brought about by the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cuts and upbeat economic data drove the stock market's defiant performance in September this year.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, which tracks consumer spending on goods and services, was lower than expected.
Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose to a better-than-expected 70.1 in September from 67.9 in August.
“Everything is calm on the inflation front,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at Morgan Stanley E-Trade. “Inflation continues to be subdued, and while economic growth may be slowing, it's not The signs are that it's falling off a cliff.”
In fact, growth is far from a “cliff fall.” According to statistics, gross domestic product grew by 3% in the second quarter U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Even better, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast The growth rate in the third quarter is expected to reach 3.1%.
While no one knows how long these golden dreams and shining days will last, it's hard to deny the stock market's gains in September.
–CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Brian Evans and Pia Singh contributed to this article.