One former Tory MP cautioned that even if Labour does badly at the next election, there is no guarantee of voters returning to the Conservatives — especially with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK circling.
“Instead what you could see is more votes going to independents and a strengthened Reform Party, and even more splintering and strain on the two-party system,” they said.
At the same time, some doubt whether the party has really reckoned with the reasons for its resounding rout at the election.
Rachel Wolf, founder of polling consultancy Public First and co-author of the 2019 Conservative manifesto, complained there was nobody tackling the question of how to strengthen essential public services, which are straining after years of rising demand and stretched funding.
Theo Bertram, director of the Social Market Foundation think tank, said: “No one is asking why public services are bad — there is no self-analysis or culpability about NHS waiting times.” Hayward predicts there’s soul-searching to come on the Conservative government’s wider economic record, too.
The annual conferences are a moment for each of the big parties to hog the limelight, but the Conservatives may find the attention soon drains away — especially once they have elected a leader and the daily grind of opposition begins.
Grassroots members and bigwigs alike may be left wondering whether they are really on course to bounce back — or if their bash in Birmingham saw a party in collective denial.
Hannah Brenton, Jack Blanchard and Dan Bloom contributed to this report.