Homes for sale in Austin, TX on May 22, 2024.
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The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped 27 basis points Friday morning after the government released its monthly jobs report. According to Mortgage News Daily, interest rates are currently at 6.53%.
This is 42 basis points higher than on September 17, the day before the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. Mortgage rates do not track the Fed, but roughly track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
For mortgage rates, the key will be expectations for the Fed's next move. Therefore, there is a lot of anticipation for this particular monthly report, as the previous two reports showed soft labor market conditions.
“In fact, the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 0.50 to 0.25 last month had a lot to do with concerns/anticipations of lower supply going forward with reports like today's,” said Matthew Gray, COO of Mortgage News Daily Matthew Graham wrote. “The only salvation is the notion that this is just one of the latest round of jobs reports, most of which have been weak, and maybe the next jobs report won't hit bonds as hard.”
However, the report did slightly change the outlook for rates going forward, as most expected the rate trajectory to be lower.
“The MBA's forecast is that long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, will remain within a relatively narrow range next year,” Michael Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said at the release of the jobs report wrote later. “This news will push mortgage rates to the top of the range, but we do expect mortgage rates to remain near 6% over the next 12 months.”
Today's homebuyers are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates as home prices continue to rise compared with this time last year. Inventory remains low on the market, which will only lead to higher prices. Interest rates are a full percentage point lower than a year ago, but the housing market has yet to see much of a boost.