by Faiqa Masoodi
The deadline set by the Supreme Court for the elections in Jammu and Kashmir may not happen by September. However, if the script does not go off track, there is a strong possibility of an assembly election by late October.
Unlike other states which are due for elections later this year, Jammu and Kashmir hardly seem to be as active as they ideally should have been. Barring a month-long political engagement during the Lok Sabha polls, the political class has returned to a state of virtual dormancy. Not many things happening on the governance front would suggest a fast-approaching poll.
Some Developments
Three developments have taken place on the government side, a few of them informally. An Election Commission of India (ECI) order that mass circulated on social media suggested the Jammu and Kashmir administration was asked to redeploy its staff. A routine pre-poll order, the directive suggested that any official who has “completed three years in a particular district during the last four years or will complete three years on or before September 30, 2024, for the UT of JK; October 31 for Haryana; November 30 for Maharashtra; and December 31 for Jharkhand” should be transferred.
In the erstwhile state, the election department is scheduled to publish the final electoral rolls on August 20. Reports appearing in media suggested these can see a delay of a few days but will be out by August 25, at all costs.
Reports appearing in the media suggest that the Election Commission of India is likely to visit Jammu and Kashmir, assess the ground situation, and meet the officials in Kashmir and Jammu before formally making an announcement. It will also seek a report from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), the virtual master of the erstwhile state, on the security situation. The visit is a follow-up to the series of virtual meetings the Commission had with the election officials of Jammu and Kashmir. Now, the visit will take place between August 8 and August 10.
Jammu and Kashmir’s security situation is by and large the same as it was during the Lok Sabha polls. Off late, however, certain areas in the Jammu region witnessed a spurt in militant activities thus posing a question mark over the peace claims in the region. Now, it remains to be seen what the security grid will talk about when the Commission finally lands in Jammu and Kashmir.
Political Class
Almost the entire political class is keen to see an election. Some of them are seeking restoration of the statehood in anticipation of the polls. However, the entire political clan seemingly has gone back to its shell after the Lok Sabha polls.
After a series of developments including the central government taking over the “liability” of the Jammu and Kashmir Police (JKP), the police chief talking about the evolution of Kashmir politics, there was an effort by Communist leader Yousuf Tarigami to an all-party meeting. He had announced the dates as well. Though no details were shared, it was presumed the idea was to get all the political parties in a meeting in which issues related to statehood and disempowerment would be discussed. The invitees would remain all including the erstwhile PAGD parties and those opposing it.
Within a few days after being planned, the meeting was cancelled. No reasons were given. However, the political grapevine is that Dr Farooq Abdullah took the non-availability route to stay away and PDP avoided confirming or denying participation. The two main parties suggest that sitting with the political forces launched to undo them may not be feasible at a time when the elections are around the corner.
Silent Shifts
However, what is not visible right now is that Kashmir’s political class is regrouping itself. The “free-floating electrons” are getting redeployed. In the last few weeks, several people have dissociated or migrated from their parent parties.
Basharat Bukhari has completed a circle in a few years. After leaving PDP, he joined JKNC and then the Peoples Conference and, for a brief period he was seen kowtowing with Ghulam Nabi Azad. He finally landed back in the PDP, the party that had launched the broadcaster as a politician. Khursheed Alam, the erstwhile trade union leader, who had joined PDP and deserted it to join the Peoples’ Conference, has also ‘home’.
Junaid Azim Mattu, who had deserted JKNC, joined Peoples Conference and eventually stayed with Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari led JK Apni Party has taken a break from politics. “After considerable thought, I announce an interim cessation of all my political activities,” Mattu announced on Twitter, days ahead of the heat wave Kashmir witnessed. “A strong conviction has to precede any meaningful work and with all humility at my command, I want to renew my pristine idealism.” Nobody knows if he intends to join any political party or launch one of his own.
In the run-up to the Lok Sabha, there were tensions within the Apni Party as Usman Majid had taken a stand on an alliance or it was said so. Last week, he bid goodbye to the party. He had been with Congress for many years before he joined Bukhari. Though he had issued a statement suggesting that he had come out of the party along with his supporters, Imtiaz Parray, son of Kukka Parry issued a counter statement asserting that he remains with the party.
Indications suggest that several political activists who had left their parties may return. PDP, which was deserted post-2018, may get some faces back. But will it be strong enough to manage a respectable share of the votes if assembly elections take place? JKNC the region’s oldest and the main political party is keeping cards close to its chest. The only party that survived unfazed is currently issuing statements that it is busy drafting the manifesto.
Fifth Anniversary
As the fifth anniversary of the undoing of Article 370 passed, the political class may require getting active to engage people. This will be after more than five years that they will go back to the voters at ground level. This election requires a contest at 90 berths, only 47 of them in Kashmir.