Ukrainian servicemen operate a Soviet-made T-72 tank in the Sumy region near the Russian border during Russia's invasion of Ukraine on August 12, 2024.
Roman Pilipe | AFP | Getty Images
Ukraine made bold incursion into Russian border territory a week ago Many officials within the Kyiv government were surprised, A senior Ukrainian official familiar with the matter told CNBC on Monday that only a few people knew about the operation in advance. Since then, government officials have been ordered to maintain a “mode of silence” about their strategic goals.
Ukraine initially remained silent on cross-border attacks, an ongoing tactic of “strategic ambiguity” aimed at keeping Russia “off balance”, This appears to be the key to its initial success and current entry into the Kursk region. Russia's slow response to what Russian President Vladimir Putin called “massive provocations” also exposed weaknesses in its military command and humiliated its leadership.
A week after the border raids were launched, information is slowly emerging about the scale and objectives of Ukraine's operations on Russian soil.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday that the purpose of the move was to “put pressure on the aggressor Russia” and to push “the war to the aggressor's territory.”
Ukraine's top military commander, General Alexander Silsky, revealed more details on Monday in his first public comments on the Kursk operation, saying Ukraine now controls about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of the region.
Russian official Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of the Kursk region, spoke to a serious-looking Putin via video conference on Monday Ukraine controls 28 settlements. Analysts from the Institute of War Studies said Geolocation footage shows Ukraine controls larger number of settlements, around 40as of Monday.
In this group photo released by Russian state news agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) presides over a meeting on the situation in the Kursk region at his official residence in Novoogaryovo, outside Moscow, on August 12, 2024 meeting.
Gavriel Grigorov | AFP | Getty Images
A senior Ukrainian official told CNBC that thousands of Ukrainian troops are currently operating in Russia and “hundreds” of Russian prisoners of war have been captured because the launch of the operation last week “caught them off guard.”
Ukraine also has no immediate plans to withdraw, the administration official said.
“We're not, we're not overly excited, overjoyed because everyone knows this is still war… but what happens in Kursk and what continues to develop will really have a huge impact on this war. .
The source added that there is a realization that a war of attrition is taking place on Ukraine's eastern front, and that Ukraine has limited manpower and resources to maintain such a position in the long term:
“Hopefully, if all goes well, the presence of Ukrainian troops in Russia will become a force that changes the dynamics of the war and will enhance our negotiating capabilities, for example, in the context of a possible peace initiative.”
Aerial view of the graves of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the Ukrainian-Russian war, Cemetery No. 18, Kharkiv, Ukraine, May 21, 2024 (Photo by Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
Kostian Liberov | Getty Images
The official was not optimistic about direct negotiations in the short term but said intermediaries such as Turkey or the United Arab Emirates could be involved in future mediations.
“So it's far from over. The war continues, but at the same time, this is a very important development for Ukraine's position, for Ukraine's morale, and for the world's confidence in Ukraine's capabilities,” the official noted. And added:
“We have once again shown the world that we can surprise, we have the ability to take these actions suddenly, they are asymmetric, they are unexpected, they put us in a better position in terms of our strategic outlook.”
Russia was caught off guard
President Vladimir Putin vowed on Monday to provide a “valuable response” to attacks on the Ukrainian border, while another 11,000 civilians in Belgorod, a region near Kursk, were evacuated due to “enemy activity.”
According to Reuters, Putin said in a video conference with senior security officials and regional governors: “The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces are increasing sharply, including the enemy's most combat-ready troops who are moving to our borders.”
“The enemy will certainly receive a valuable response, and there is no doubt that all the objectives facing us will be achieved.” Putin did not confirm his statement or elaborate further on what Russia might respond.
Screenshots from the video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense show that on August 8, 2024, the Russian army launched a missile attack on the military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area near Russia's Kursk Oblast.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Russia's Defense Ministry initially downplayed the incursion at the start of last week, but quickly changed its stance, saying about 1,000 troops and a large number of tanks and armored vehicles were involved.
As of Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry admitted Ukrainian troops have advanced 30 kilometers towards Kursk The battle continues.
The intrusion undoubtedly shocked Russian defense and government officials, prompting the evacuation of thousands of Kursk citizens and neighboring Belgorod, Russian troops and resources will be redeployed to Kursk from areas of intense fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Employees of Russia's Emergency Command help people forced to leave border settlements as they arrive at a train station in Orel, Russia, from the Kursk region on August 9, 2024.
Russian Emergencies Ministry | Anadolu | Getty Images
Government officials interviewed by CNBC stressed that Ukraine does not want to annex parts of Russia but wants to try to use its current status as “leverage” to “achieve a just peace more quickly.”
“This has nothing to do with Ukraine wanting to seize Russian territory. We believe the world understands that this is not about annexing parts of Russia. We don't need that territory. We just need them to leave our territory,” the official said.
What happens next?
Geopolitical analysts say the Kursk operation needs to be watched closely and could herald a breakthrough in the war.
One possible scenario is that more Ukrainian troops could be sent to Kursk to bolster operations, although this would deprive key frontline positions and leave them weakened and unprotected. Kyiv also insists its priority is protecting its troops.
So what happens next will largely depend on Russia's response to the invasion, which there are fears could be violent given the Kremlin's humiliation.
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank, said Russia was “seriously embarrassed” by the cross-border attack but that the challenge for Ukraine was to sustain such an attack.
“Given the limited reserves available to Ukraine, maintaining any size of force in Russia and defending against counterattacks will be difficult,” Saville said in emailed comments.
“While the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative of being on the defensive, it seems unlikely that they will be willing to carry out a large-scale invasion that lasts for months; they will decide the best time to trade in the lands they occupy, and for what purpose,” he said.
To strategists such as David Roche, senior investor and strategist at Quantum Strategies, Ukraine’s latest offensive in Kursk “looks more like a breakthrough” that threatens Russia’s three key Assets: Kursk's 415,000 inhabitants, two major highways and railways as main sources of supply. Route to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
“Ukrainians have to worry about Russia's eventual response and its own military logistics involved in a rapid advance,” Roach said, but noted that the invasion had accomplished many of its strategic goals.
First, he said, the border raid was a disgrace to President Putin. Second, it made the Russian people realize the cost and reality of war.
Roach said the incursion showed that Western concerns about taking the war directly to Russia and launching attacks on Russian soil and about escalation were misplaced.
“The West is wrong to force Ukraine to fight by Moscow's rules,” Roach said.