Georgia’s government’s aggressive response to Russia’s resumption of commercial flights between the two countries has reignited concerns that the Caucasus nation is back on Moscow’s track.
Georgian ministers welcomed the resumption of flights as an economic opportunity, in what appeared to be the latest move in a tug-of-war between Russia and the West over Georgia’s geopolitical leanings. The developments sparked smaller protests in the capital Tbilisi and united an otherwise fragmented opposition two months after larger anti-government protests turned violent.
The ruling Georgian Dream party, widely believed to be controlled by its founding oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, has pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity since being elected in 2020, ostensibly courting US and EU partners while publicly denouncing the West and directing policies that serve Moscow’s interests.
But most Georgians and the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, remain staunchly pro-European and explicitly support opposition to a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Zurabichvili described the resumption of flights as “yet another Russian provocation,” adding that “it is unacceptable as long as Russia continues to invade Ukraine and occupy our territories.” Two regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, were occupied by Russian forces after a brief war in 2008. Moscow recognized their self-proclaimed independence.
“We don’t need a gift from Russia disguised as some kind of concession,” Zurabichvili said in a speech.
Putin’s decision to impose the flight ban in 2019 was a punitive measure after Russian MPs protested at the Orthodox National Assembly of Lawmakers in Tbilisi over the Russian lawmaker’s presence in Georgia’s parliament. In addition to resuming flights, Moscow announced last week that it would allow Georgians to visit Russia visa-free.
The EU said the resumption of direct flights raised questions about Georgia’s adherence to EU policies as a country that had applied to join the bloc.
“Georgia’s alignment with EU foreign and security policy decisions and statements fell from an already low 44 percent last year to 31 percent so far this year,” EU foreign and security affairs spokesman Peter Stano said. “That causes us concern.”
Unlike Ukraine and Moldova, which gained candidacy last year, Georgia must complete a series of reforms before it can be granted that status. But according to opinion polls, more than 80% of Georgians support EU integration.
Companies at Georgian airports could be at risk of sanctions if they facilitate Russian airlines currently under international sanctions, the U.S. State Department said. Georgian Deputy Economy Minister Mariam Kvrivishvili said that only non-sanctioned Russian airlines could operate direct flights to Georgia.
Georgia’s Civil Aviation Authority this week approved Azimuth Airlines, a Ukrainian-but not international-sanctioned airline that operates flights to Russia-annexed Crimea. The agency also authorized Georgian national airline Georgian Airlines to operate non-stop flights to and from Russia.
Georgian Foreign Minister Ilia Darchiashvili said the “Georgian Dream” encouraged Georgians to consider the Kremlin’s decision through a so-called “humanitarian prism” for Georgians currently living in Russia and give them “the opportunity to communicate and travel freely and easily”.
According to Economy Minister Levan Davitashvili, the government also sees the move as a boon for Georgia’s tourism economy, which is expected to see an inflow of US$300-400 million.
Few Georgians would trust these assurances. With Georgia’s dream of turning to Russia dovetailing with an increasingly authoritarian approach, few doubt that Putin’s decision reflects tensions between the two governments and payback for Georgia’s ruling party’s stance on the Ukraine war.
The government’s positioning has united the usually divided political opposition, with a rare meeting of the main opposition parties four days after the announcement in Moscow.
“We are not usually united, but when it comes to Russia or Ukraine, we are fully united,” said Elene Khoshtaria, leader of the liberal opposition party Droa. She promised to replicate the March protests sparked by a draft law targeting foreign agents that critics say was inspired by the Kremlin.
“This is an attempt by Russia and the Georgian government to increase their political influence in Georgia,” Khoshtaria said. “It’s a continuation of the trends we’ve seen, especially since the war in Ukraine, that Georgia is shifting away from the West.”
At a time when most regional neighbors appear to be moving away from Moscow, Tbilisi’s trajectory has unnerved those who once considered Georgia a key strategic ally of the West in the Caucasus.
“The war in Ukraine has not affected (Georgian Dream) relations with Russia. GD is acting like nothing happened,” said Irakli Sirbiladze, an analyst at PMC Research Center, a think tank in Georgia. “Russia sees the Georgian dream and its position on the Ukraine war as something in Russia’s favor, and they want Georgia to continue in that direction.”