The author is the English-language editor-in-chief of OVD-Info, an organization that monitors human rights in Russia
It has been more than a year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and my Western friends often ask me: why are the Russians not protesting? The answer is that some do — but protests are largely futile in the face of a decade-long Kremlin crackdown.
exist OVD-Information, a Russian human rights organization with hundreds of affiliated lawyers, we see signs of resistance every day. We do our best to protect those who are persecuted for their anti-war beliefs, and the movement continues despite harsh punishments. Russians from the Baltic to the Pacific stood up against the invasion. The protests ranged from handing out leaflets to individual picketing and burning of conscription offices.
Authorities have responded by imprisoning dissidents for decades and hunting down activists. Opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was jailed for 25 years last month on false treason charges, likened it to the Joseph Stalin-era trials. Another opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has been in prison since returning to Russia in 2021 from Germany, where he is recovering from an assassination attempt.
Ordinary Russians live in fear of committing a thought crime by opposing the war. The Kremlin crackdown did not happen overnight on February 24, 2022, when the full-scale assault on Ukraine began. It has evolved over time, influenced by fear of the wave of democracy in the former Soviet Union and preparations for war. To explain protests in contemporary Russia, we must understand how and why the Kremlin suppresses protests so effectively.
Russians are best seen as a country held hostage by authoritarian ruler Vladimir Putin, who, like the KGB security police he once worked for, has become as expert at suppressing dissent. Therefore, they are afraid to express their opinions. Those who spoke to reporters were attacked by the regime. Only a small number of Russians enthusiastically supported the war or enthusiastically opposed it. Most people struggle with helplessness and fear.
We recently published a paper on using Article 212.1 Russian Penal Code. It is only a small part of the repressive machine, but it speaks to the Kremlin’s goals. The article targets the politically minded and characterizes activists as “recidivists.” Participating in an “illegal” protest for the first time, or being deemed to be participating in a protest (which the authorities consider almost all opposition protests to be illegal) is usually only fined, but for a repeat offence, you could be jailed for up to five years.
This article was published in 2014, in part in response to the Maidan revolution in Ukraine, and about two years after Russia’s 2011-2012 pro-democracy protests in Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square, where thousands marched against Putin regime. Pro-government lawmakers have dubbed Section 212.1 a “vaccine against the Maidan.”
The Kremlin wanted to instill fear, and it worked. The article was rarely used at first, but when it did, it chilled activism and terrified the media and would-be protesters. A sword of Damocles hangs over their heads forever.
The publication of the article was the first sign of the regime’s wanton persecution of protesters. We estimate that since 2015, 496 people have been criminally prosecuted for protesting, and more than 60,000 protesters have been punished for petty crimes. Now every Russian protester knows that if they walk down the street, they could go straight to prison. Still, they protested.
To finally douse the fire, the Kremlin embarked on a scorched-earth assault on civil society many months before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Activists were exiled, organizations destroyed, and their websites and funds blocked — including OVD-Info. Russians are now afraid to express themselves publicly, as any action could be seen as a “protest”.
The inability of Russia to protest the invasion was to be expected. Surprisingly, Russian civil society did not collapse in the attack. Regardless, tens of thousands of Russians took to the streets. The exiles continued to conduct anti-war activities abroad. Every major independent Russian media organization is against the war. Human rights groups like ours continue to resist the Kremlin’s authoritarianism.
So why aren’t Russians protesting? They did, but their protest was suppressed by a powerful and brutal regime. If governments and people abroad want Russians to protest more, they should support Russian civil society and help us overcome our fears. Together we can fight this evil.