There have been only two polls (of dubious quality) conducted entirely after the debate, with each showing Trump with a 1-point lead. Of the seven core swing states, Arizona and Nevada are the most sporadically polled.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.0 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.8)
RealClearPolitics average: Trump +1.7 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.3)
Silver Bulletin average: Trump +0.8 (On Sept. 10: Trump +0.7)
2020 result: Biden +0.2
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted mostly after the debate found Trump with a 3-point lead in Georgia, 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll showed Harris at 77 percent with Black voters; now-President Joe Biden won about 90 percent of African Americans in the state four years ago, according to surveys with 2020 election voters.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +2.7 (On Sept. 10: Harris +1.7)
RealClearPolitics average: Harris +1.7 (On Sept. 10: Harris +1.2)
Silver Bulletin average: Harris +2.5 (On Sept. 10: Harris +1.6)
2020 result: Biden +2.8
Michigan, which Biden won by nearly 3 points in 2020, has emerged as Harris’ best battleground state. Her numbers are up about a point since the day of the debate, thanks to 5-point leads in polls from Marist College and Quinnipiac University.
The Marist poll shows Harris winning about two-thirds of the vote in Wayne County, home to Detroit, 66 percent to 34 percent. That’s only slightly behind Biden’s 2020 margin over Trump: 68 percent to 30 percent.