With votes sealed in EVMs, the first of the 3-phase assembly elections will offer a clear idea about PDP’s future in a changed Jammu and Kashmir, reports Syed Shadab Ali Gillani
In Jammu Kashmir’s first of the 3-phase elections, the outcome will offer a clear idea of how much of the home turf Mehbooba Mufti-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will compromise. The exercise is historic as these are first polls after 10 years during which Jammu Kashmir lost its autonomy – flowing through Article 370 and 35A, compromised its empowered assembly and got reduced to a federally governed Union Territory. The election will not only get some civilian rule but also restore democracy and offer the political class a legitimate platform to lament the loss.
With the fate of 16 of the South Kashmir berths sealed in the EVMs from 24 assembly constituencies, the PDP, which once considered the region as its bastion, now finds itself on uncertain grounds. Its challenger is the Jammu Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) region’s oldest political party, which suddenly emerged an alternative in 2002. The JKNC with its ally, Congress, is the main opponent and not the BJP. Even parole-released Engineer Rasheed is on the margins, along with his ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, though banned but contesting independently.
Parties apart, there are notable candidates in fray: Waheed Para, Iltija Mufti, Yousuf Tarigami, Ghulam Ahmad Mir, and Sakina Itoo. In Jammu, it is Sajjad Kitchloo, Vikar Rasool Wani, Suhurwardi, Majid Wani and Sunil Sharma.
This election is being seen as more than a contest for power as it is expected to define the future of a region, post-370. What adds spice to the exercise is that all contestants almost share the same manifesto. Instead Roti, Kapda, Makan, it is identity politics that is vociferously talked high-decibel.
Voters Voices
In the last more than five years, people on the streets are reticent. The fear of the state would prevent people from talking to strangers. It still exists. It takes some effort to get people talk. Electors have different priorities for their participation. More than 59 per cent participated and it was impressive.
“I am tired of central government rule,” Nasir, a scholar from South Kashmir, who voted for the first time, said. “I want a governing body over us. We want the formation of government.”
Another voter expressed frustration with the current administration. “The central government is not good for us. We need our administration,” he said, highlighting unemployment, developmental deficit, and political prisoners.
A seasoned voter shared his disappointment with past elections. “We have voted for development and resolution of issues, but nothing substantial has been done. Kashmiri youth suffer from mental health problems due to lack of representation.” He asserted the need for change. “This time, youth are voting for representation. We need somebody to speak up for us, a solid government that addresses our issues. We want representation in the Assembly.”
“We are happy to participate in these elections,” a Pulwama voter said. “We see it as a festival – the return of elections and polls. We cast votes to choose our representative, which is a positive step for us.”
Residents talked about numerous issues. “Rising poverty and developmental deficit is a major issue, one resident said. “We are voting to make our voices heard. The situation is exhausting, and we need to speak up.”
“We are exercising our rights because we want statehood restored,” a Pampore elector said. “We want Article 370 and 35A back; we want our identity back. For 10 years, Kashmir was denied democracy.”
People admit they are using the vote as a weapon, with vengeance against what “we were subjected to” in the last many years. “We are fighting through our votes,” one voter confided. “But we are grateful to the Supreme Court for this opportunity. Now we are reclaiming our identity.”
An elderly voter insisted: “I am voting for the restoration of the past when times were better. We want our young people’s issues resolved. We want our youth to move freely, our prisoners to be released, our families reunited, and normalcy restored.”
Politician Talks
The major crisis that the political class is facing is that of disconnect. For most of the five years, either they were inaccessible to their voters or they lacked authority and access to help them. The “intervention” in the last many years also changed the political address of the politicians. In Noorabad, the man who represented the area in the assembly has a new party now and the man who succeeded him is a novice.
Sakina Itoo, a veteran politician who has survived 20 assassination attempts, is seeking re-election from Noorabad, is one of only two frontline female politicians in Kashmir.
“A lot has changed,” Ms Itoo said, reflecting on the constituency and delimitation. “Earlier, it was Noorabad, and now it is Damhal Hanjipura. They tried to destroy the constituencies, but thanks to Allah, we have new areas added. Some were cut, but we worked tirelessly for their development. At least 10 to 15 new villages are now part of our constituency.”
Sakina Itoo’s connection to these villages is deeply rooted, dating back to her father, the late Wali Mohammed Itoo, a prominent politician who represented the same constituency many times before militants assassinated him in 1994.
“In my constituency, the people have made up their minds. Wherever I go, I’m welcomed with enthusiasm. After the Parliament election, around 10,000 PDP members joined us – we have the entire list on record. This growth in support since the last election reassures me that the people of Jammu and Kashmir, especially Noorabad, will support the JKNC,” she said. “I am confident. The game here is one-sided.”
Kashmir historically has “genetic susceptibility”, as one BJP leader said, towards the JKNC. Itoo’s optimism is not mere imagination. Undercurrents are going on.
This, however, has not impacted the PDP’s youth leader Waheed Para. “Just like in 2002, PDP will surprise everyone again – this is my strong belief,” he said. “We will form the government this time. South Kashmir will be part of it, just as it was back then.” Para acknowledged a tight contest between PDP and JKNC. “However, you will see PDP reclaiming South Kashmir seats, constituencies, and strongholds.”
Debutant Iltija Mufti is on the same page. Contesting from Bijbehara, devoid of a crowd of candidates unlike other places, she insisted: “I will win the seat through my hard work and determination. Our vote bank in South Kashmir is strong.”
“I think what works for us in Bijbehara is that people know what PDP has done for them,” Mufti said. “They connect with me, and our party cadre is strong there.”
Four-time lawmaker, Comrade Yousuf Tarigami regrets the loss. “We are no longer part of a powerful Assembly, nor are we contesting from a state – we’ve been reduced to two union territories. The circumstances are vastly different this time around,” he admitted. This time, he is pitted against Sayar Reshi, a Jamaat-e-I Islami-backed candidate.
“I am contesting as an independent candidate and we are hopeful of winning,” Reshi said. “Kulgam has traditionally been our constituency. We previously boycotted elections due to concerns about rigging.”
In the 87-member house, PDP has 11 of the 16 seats that South Kashmir had. Only two each were with JKNC and Congress. Now, what will PDP share in the 16 seats in 2024, it remains to be seen.
The First Phase
This time, people voted with vengeance. More than 59 per cent participation was recorded in the first phase, a bit little participation in comparison to Lok Sabha polls a few months back. Prime Minister Narendra Modi showered praises for the substantial voter turnout.
The 2014 assembly saw a 60.19 per cent voter turnout in these districts. This time, there were highs and lows. In Shangus-Anantnag, where 52.94 per cent of voters cast ballots, was a huge fall from 68.78 per cent a decade ago.
In Damhal Hanjipora, voter turnout decreased from 80.92 per cent in 2014 to 68 per cent this time. Doda and Doda West segments recorded turnouts of 70.21 per cent and 74.14 per cent, respectively. Before delimitation, these segments had achieved 79.51 per cent.
Kokernag, now a Scheduled Tribes reserved constituency following delimitation, saw a seven-percentage-point drop to 58 per cent.
Inderwal’s turnout rose to 80 per cent, up from 75.72 per cent in 2014, while Kishtwar’s decreased from 78.23 per cent to 75.04 per cent.
In the Kashmir Valley’s 16 seats, voter turnout remained largely unchanged. Wednesday’s turnout was 53.55 per cent, compared with 54.93 per cent in 2014.