People shop at a home improvement store on August 14, 2024 in New York City.
Spencer Pratt | Getty Images
This report comes from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open keeps investors updated on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Consumers are not confident
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from 105.6 in August. September's number was below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 104 and was the largest month-on-month decline in three years. The number of respondents who said jobs are “difficult to find” increased from 16.8% to 18.3%.
A different view on Wall Street
Goldman Sachs Treasury Secretary Denis Coleman told CNBC that the Fed can “somewhat maintain a soft landing trajectory” because “inflation levels are falling and unemployment is under control.” But Jamie Dimon, C.E.O. JPMorgan ChaseIn an interview with CNBCTV18, he said that he turned to the “cautious side” on the topic of soft landing.
How much will oil demand grow?
According to OPEC's 2024 World Oil Outlook report, oil demand will experience “strong medium-term growth” from 102.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029. Not all analysts agree with the forecast. The International Energy Agency believes oil demand will Stable at 106 million barrels daily by the end of the century.
(PRO)Two different stories
The economy is either strong or on the verge of weakness, depending on who you ask. The stock market just hit a new high on Tuesday, indicating that the booming economy will enter a stage of rapid development in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The bond market, on the other hand, tells a different story.
bottom line
Yesterday we received slightly disturbing news about American consumers.
this The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index It fell from 105.6 to 98.7, the largest drop since inflation began to explode in August 2021.
Consumers, especially those ages 35-54 and making less than $50,000, are worried about jobs and inflation. Compared with August, more respondents in September said jobs were “hard to find” and more scarce. Inflation concerns have also resurfaced, with 12-month inflation expectations rising to 5.2% from 4.9% in August.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also expressed doubts about the state of the economy in an interview with CNBCTV-18. “The market is pricing things like they're going to be great. That makes me cautious about it,” he said.
While inflation appears to be largely subdued, at least by the measure of most Fed officials, Dimon thinks the economy could be weighed down by “geopolitics that are getting worse… energy supply is a possibility.” ACCIDENT.”
Still, investors don't seem to be shaking off their pessimism. this Standard & Poor's It rose 0.25%, continuing the momentum of closing at a new high. this Dow Chemical It rose 0.2%, also hitting a record high. promoter NVIDIA 4% jump, Nasdaq Index up 0.56%.
Perhaps some downbeat data and a stark reminder of potential risks have given investors comfort that recent stock index highs were not driven by irrational exuberance. Of course, this is difficult to prove. The market may simply be ignoring warnings about the economy.
But the fact that stocks continue to rise even amid mixed economic data suggests that the market's upward trajectory is sober at the moment. As Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, noted, “If we start hearing that everything is fine (or) everything is going smoothly, we will be more concerned.”
–CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Brian Evans and Hakyung Kim contributed to this article.