Smoking is a known risk factor for a variety of long-term health conditions and premature death. Now, a recent study shows that by reducing smoking rates from current levels to 5% everywhere by 2050, life expectancy would increase significantly and millions of premature deaths could be prevented around the world.
From 1990 to 2021, smoking has claimed more than 175 million lives and caused nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (premature deaths).
this study The study, published in The Lancet Public Health Journal, examined the impact of three smoking prevalence scenarios on life expectancy and life lost from all causes, including cause-specific premature death. These scenarios include continuation of current smoking trends, achieving zero smoking rates from 2023 (Elimination-2023) and a stable reduction in global smoking prevalence to just 5% (Elimination-2050).
It is estimated that in 2022, the global male smoking rate will be about 28.5%, and the female smoking rate will be about 5.96%. The analysis shows that if smoking trends continue, the prevalence will drop to about 26% among men and about 30% among women by 2050. The total number of years will still decrease. Life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.3 years in 2050.
In the second scenario, the complete elimination of smoking in 2023, life expectancy would be reduced by approximately 2.04 billion years, increasing to 77.6 years for men and 81 years for women by 2050.
In a less ambitious scenario, in which smoking is eliminated by 2050, men would lose about 735 million years and women would lose 141 million years. Life expectancy will continue to increase, reaching 77.1 years for men and 80.8 years for women by 2050.
The researchers also noted that under the 2050 elimination plan, men in East, Central and Southeast Asia would benefit the most, with lifespans increasing by 1.2 to 1.8 years, while women in East Asia, North America and Oceania could gain 0.3 to 0.5 years.
“We must not lose sight of our efforts to reduce and ultimately eliminate smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by quitting smoking,” said senior author Professor Stan Emil Walset in a said in the report. Press release.
The study has certain limitations. It does not consider the effects of reducing secondhand smoke exposure or the potential health effects of e-cigarettes. The study also did not take into account future advances in health care, such as improvements in lung cancer detection or treatment.