Ukraine just scored a diplomatic victory. Now, the country is under pressure to achieve a military victory.
After the pomp of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, the focus will turn back to the harsh realities of the war in eastern Ukraine. The diplomatic and military support provided to Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the G7 meeting was a huge boost for the Ukrainian president. But the danger is that it may be remembered as a culmination of international support for Ukraine.
Ukrainians know that the best way to maintain Western support is to make huge gains on the battlefield. But Russia’s claim that they have finally taken control of the hotly contested and largely destroyed town of Bakhmut underscores how challenging that could be.
No signs of international pressure on Zelensky bulletin Published by G7. The group used the familiar formula that they would support Ukraine “in its time of need”. But the unofficial message is a bit more mixed: “As long as it takes. But not for too long.”
This sense of urgency does not reflect a lack of sympathy for Ukraine from major Western governments. Instead, there are fears that if Kiev’s much-anticipated counteroffensive fails to turn the tide on the battlefield, the country’s supporters will struggle to maintain current levels of political, financial and logistical support.
The mounting pressure on Ukraine is closely tied to the 2024 US presidential election. Donald Trump’s emergence as the Republican front-runner has heightened fears that the next U.S. president will overhaul policy on Ukraine.trump has boast He can end a war in a day, which is very different from the “as long as it takes” message.
Even a Trump-led presidential campaign could clearly undermine the bipartisan consensus on Ukraine. All sorts of arguments against supporting Kiev — from the cost of war to the danger of escalation — will be disseminated.U.S. opinion polls have shown some decline Support Ukraine.
All this gives Vladimir Putin reason to hope that if he keeps Russia at war for another 18 months, the Trumpist cavalry might be on the horizon. The Kremlin is already engaged in intense flirtation with the former US president and his supporters.Russia’s latest list of sanctioned Americans include People who have nothing to do with Ukraine but are on Trump’s unofficial list of domestic enemies — such as Brad Ravensberger, the official who rejected Trump’s pleas to “get” more votes for him in Georgia .
Washington’s attitude is crucial, given that the United States provides most of its military support to Ukraine. The shift in the political climate in the US will inevitably trickle down to Europe as well.The destruction of energy markets by the war has caused European countries to spend About 800 billion euros in energy subsidies. Economic grievances could translate into support for far-right and far-left populist parties sympathetic to Russia.
Then there is the issue of arms supply. Both the U.S. and Europe have all but emptied their stockpiles of artillery shells and related ammunition in an effort to keep supplies to Ukraine. If the economy is not transferred to the war, Western military factories will not be able to keep up with the pace of the battle. The fighting was so fierce that, as one Western politician put it, “Ukrainians consume in hours what we produce in weeks”. Western national security officials have had to moonlight as arms dealers — in capitals across the globe, from Seoul to Islamabad — to find new supplies of missiles and other weapons to deliver to the front lines.
The US and Europeans think their efforts are working and Ukraine does now have enough weapons to mount a serious offensive. But the arms cabinet in the west now looks empty. It won’t be fully replenished until 2024 — though by then the Ukrainians will be able to deploy the fighter jets promised to them last week.
The current Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely begin quietly with a series of probing missions that will look for weaknesses in Russia’s defenses. But the extent of these Russian vulnerabilities remains a “known unknown” in warfare.
Some Western officials who work closely with Kiev believe there is a good chance that the Ukrainians will break through Russia’s defenses and threaten Crimea. Others warn that the Russians are putting their heads down — and that inexperienced Ukrainian troops may struggle to make headway. Pessimists worry that if the war remains deadlocked next year, Putin could mobilize hundreds of thousands of new troops for the next phase of the conflict. Although Ukrainians have higher morale and better tactics, Russia has more potential soldiers.
But even if Ukraine fails to achieve a breakthrough and Western support for Kiev does start to falter, things will not end there. Ukrainian officials point out that, unlike their Western backers, they can never escape the conflict. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, likes to quote John Lennon’s adage: “In the end everything will be fine. If it ain’t up, it’s not over.”
gideon.rachman@ft.com