People walk past campaign posters for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey, May 25, 2023. Neither candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote in the May 14 election, which will see the country hold its first presidential runoff.
Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Millions of Turks voted for the second time in two weeks on Sunday to decide the outcome of Turkey’s historically close presidential race.
Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, clashes with opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whom many say is Erdogan The worst battle of his political career could be a fatal blow to his 20-year rule. But the first round of voting — a whopping 86.2 percent turnout — disappointed the opposition, with Kilicdaroglu, 74, trailing by about five percentage points.
Still, no candidate has crossed the 50% threshold needed to win; Erdogan has 49.5% support, Kilidaroglu 44.7%, and the decision is set for the first ballot on May 14 last for two weeks. The winner will preside over an ever-changing divided country, a cost-of-living crisis and complex security issues, as well as – as NATO’s second-largest military power and a key mediator between Ukraine and Russia – an increasingly important role in global geopolitics. increasingly important role.
National analysts are all but certain of Erdogan’s victory.
“We expect Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to extend his rule into a third decade in the runoff election on May 28, with our judgment-based forecast giving him an 87% chance of winning,” said risk intelligence firm Hamish Kinnear Verisk Maplecroft, senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa region, wrote in a research note.
In just two weeks, some candidates’ campaign messages have shifted dramatically, with both contenders doubling down on vicious accusations, stubborn nationalism and scapegoating.
“Let all refugees go home”
Known for his more conciliatory, soft-spoken demeanor, Kilicdaroglu has taken a shocking turn to xenophobia and fear-mongering as part of his runoff campaign strategy, capitalizing on widespread Turkish discontent with the country’s more than 4 million refugees.
He promised to “bring all the refugees home” if elected and accused Erdogan of allowing refugees to flood the country. He also claimed that if Erdogan remained in power, Turkish cities would be at the mercy of criminal gangs and the refugee mafia. The vast majority of Türkiye’s refugees come from neighboring war-torn Syria.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, leader of the centre-left pro-secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), holds a news conference in Ankara, May 15, 2023.
Bulent Kilic | AFP | Getty Images
Previously, Erdogan’s biggest rival had been operating on a platform of restoring economic stability, democratic values and improving relations with Europe and NATO.
Kilicdaroglu’s new strategy appears to be a response to the fact that third-party hard-nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan won just over 5% of the vote on May 14, effectively making him kingmaker. Whoever Ogan backs could win a potentially decisive portion of his electorate — and despite Kilidaroglu’s nationalist and anti-refugee rhetoric, Organ ended up backing Erdogan.
“Kilicdaroglu has taken a tougher line on immigration and security ahead of the runoff … that’s not enough,” Kinnear said.
Meanwhile, supporters of Erdogan have circulated numerous fake posters and videos aimed at getting Kilidaroglu’s party, CHP, to support Kurdish militant groups that Ankara has classified as terrorists.
German news outlet DW The poster is reportedly fakeciting Turkish fact-checking organization Teyit.org.
In a TV interview on Tuesday, Erdogan Acknowledging Screening Tampered Footage At his Kilicdaroglu campaign rally wrongly portrays the latter call with Kurdish militants.
In a surprise move, a far-right anti-immigration party called the Victory Party backed Kilicdaroglu on Wednesday over his pledge to return refugees to Syria – splitting right-wing groups between the two presidential candidates.
“Now we have two anti-refugee political leaders backing rivals,” Middle East Eye Turkey bureau chief Ragip Soylu noted in a Twitter post.
economy, earthquake
Erdogan’s sustained and seemingly unshakable popularity has come despite years of deteriorating economy in the country of 85 million people.
Turkish lira loses around 80% against dollar Dollar Five years later, the country’s inflation rate is around 50%, thanks in large part to the president’s unorthodox economic policy of cutting interest rates even as inflation was already high.
A series of devastating earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people was made worse by a slow government response and reports of widespread corruption, which allowed construction companies to circumvent earthquake safety regulations for buildings.
Local residents carry body bags as they wait for their loved ones to be rescued from the rubble of a collapsed building in Hatay, February 14, 2023, after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck the southeast of the country.
Bulent Kilic | AFP | Getty Images
But Erdogan appears largely untouched politically. He still won the most votes in Turkey’s quake-hit eastern provinces, which are overwhelmingly Islamic conservatives. Moreover, his powerful AK Party has won a majority in Turkey’s parliament, meaning his opponent has far less power as president.
“Erdogan did not hesitate to call on voters to support him to avoid a destabilizing split between parliament and the president,” Kinnear said. Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu called on the 8 million Gen Z and Kurdish voters who did not vote in the first round to come forward and support him.
However, his anti-refugee rhetoric has angered many of his supporters and prompted his resignation from some of his campaign allies.
With the incumbent’s victory looking increasingly certain, analysts are not holding their breath waiting for the economy to return to normal. Turkey’s central bank is already aggressively implementing new regulations to curb local lira purchases of foreign currencies to prevent further depreciation of the lira. The currency fell to its weakest level against the dollar in six months after the first round of voting, when Erdogan’s lead became apparent.
Kinnear wrote: “Investors should not expect Turkey to turn fundamentally to an unorthodox approach to economic decision-making anytime soon. Erdogan believes that lower interest rates will lead to lower inflation, which will affect monetary policy, and this will continue. Spook the market.”
Amid speculation about the lira’s path after the vote, Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the only question now is “how weak the lira is and how weak the lira is going to be, and the lack of ability to use higher interest rates.” The CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) can prevent another devaluation-inflation spiral.”