Nigeria’s new president vows to deliver economic reboot as he inherits ‘a broken country’

New Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinnub faces the daunting task of injecting stability into a society and economy in crisis — and rekindling hope for young people who have felt their voices have been ignored for decades.

The 71-year-old was sworn in on Monday as the 16th president of Africa’s most populous country and the fifth since 30 years of military rule ended in 1999. He succeeds Muhammadu Buhari, who is also the chairman of the All Progressive Congress (APC) party, who left with a widely criticized economic record.

Meanwhile, the judge is considering legal petitions filed by opposition leaders Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labor Party alleging fraud and Questioned the results of the February presidential election.

Tinubu inherited an economy saddled with record debt and inflation at a near two-year high of more than 22%, along with shortages of foreign exchange reserves and fuel, a severely devalued naira currency, poor power supplies and falling oil production.

economic turmoil

A former governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, Tinubu is credited with modernizing Nigeria’s business center and greatly expanding the regional economy.

Touting his record, he vowed at his swearing-in ceremony on Monday to grow the Nigerian economy by at least 6 percent a year, unify the exchange rate and eliminate costly fuel subsidies, while tackling widespread insecurity.

“I have a message for our local and foreign investors: Our government will review all their complaints about multiple taxes and various anti-investment bans,” Tinub told the audience at Eagle Square in Abuja, while promising to “thoroughly “clean” monetary policy.

His predecessor, Buhari, implemented a series of protectionist economic policies that spooked international investors. While he claimed in his farewell speech on Sunday that many “difficult decisions” had strengthened the country’s economic resilience, hard data showed unemployment and poverty were widening.

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics now estimates that 63 percent of the population, some 133 million people, are now classified as multidimensionally poor, a 10-percentage-point increase since 2015, before Buhari took office. Unemployment is 33.3 percent, more than 230,000 people, and has risen steadily over the past eight years.

Samson Itodo, executive director of Nigeria-based citizen advocacy group YIAGA Africa, told CNBC he hoped the country would get through the legal challenge process with minimal disruption, but Tinubu’s government struggled in the first 60 days. Faced with multiple obstacles.

“He’s inherited a broken economy, he’s inherited a broken country, polarized along religious and racial lines, so there’s a lot of hope that, being a Tinubu like him, he’s going to take that responsibility, but I do believe that Nigeria will Withdrew because of our resilient character,” Itodo said on Monday.

Despite its popularity, decades-old subsidies for petroleum products have been a heavy burden on government finances, with some governments promising but failing to remove it since its introduction in the 1970s.

Itodo said the first few months of Tinubu’s term will be key to restoring economic credibility to voters who have weathered two recessions in the past eight years by delivering on bold campaign promises and appointing “capable people” with the necessary experience.

divided country

Nigeria has one of the fastest growing populations in the world – currently close to 220 million and expected to double by 2050. It also has one of the youngest average populations in the world, with 42 percent of its citizens under the age of 15 and a median age of just over 18, the United Nations estimates.

Ahead of the February election, Labor’s Peter Obi mobilized popular discontent over widespread youth unemployment, lack of opportunity and police brutality, attracting large numbers of young people looking to break away from the country’s traditional two major parties, the APC and PDP. voter.

Tinubu won just 37 percent of the national vote, and only a quarter of Nigeria’s 93 million registered voters managed to cast their ballots in a process plagued by technical problems. For many disenfranchised Nigerians, he will face the daunting task of proving his mettle on economic and social issues.

Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said Tinubu’s presidency would be seen by many disappointed voters as strengthening the “rule of an entrenched political elite”.

“Tinubu’s electoral victory further ingrained the perception among ordinary Nigerians that the political arena is a playground for wealthy old guard who put patronage at the heart of politics,” Durmaz said.

“The broad client network and strong regional brokers behind his wins will likely be rewarded with state jobs at the national and federal level.”

A key question in his first 100 days in office will be whether the new leader has the “will and ability” to reach out to alienated urban youth and minorities, Durmaz said.

“Tinubu needs to promote an inclusive national identity in a deeply volatile society and address the grievances that most Nigerians feel about issues like insecurity, police brutality and inequality,” Durmaz said.

Tinubu has vowed to tackle widespread violence — including killings and kidnappings in the northwest, clashes between herders and farmers in the country’s “middle belt” — and separatist and gang attacks in the southeast, with an overhaul of Nigeria’s security sector .

“Nigeria’s overstretched state security apparatus has a history of gross human rights abuses and needs extensive structural reforms, comprehensive training programs and modernized equipment,” Durmaz said.

“Any improvement in the military must be accompanied by economic development programs in violence-affected areas to curb the main drivers of insecurity, namely poverty, youth unemployment and lack of a state presence.”