BRASILIA (Reuters) -Brazil’s central bank chief, Roberto Campos Neto, indicated on Monday that an improvement in market conditions is paving the way for a shift in monetary policy, while more benign inflation has increased investor bets for earlier interest rate cuts.
Speaking at an event hosted by IDV, a group that brings together major retailers in Latin America’s largest economy, Campos Neto said long-term inflation expectations have started to fall and the yield curve has dropped sharply, demonstrating that “the market is giving credibility to what is being done” by the central bank to reduce price pressures.
Campos Neto added that this situation “opens room for monetary policy action ahead,” without specifying the time frame for such action.
The central bank has consistently expressed concern about increased long-term inflation expectations to justify the need to keep its benchmark interest rate at a cycle high of 13.75%, where it has remained since September despite cooling inflation.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has criticized this policy stance, saying it hampers economic growth.
Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to make its next monetary policy decision on June 21, which Campos Neto said he could not anticipate.
Campos Neto said on Monday that future interest rates have decreased by around three percentage points since the government presented new fiscal rules, addressing worries about uncontrolled growth in public debt.
He also affirmed that the exchange rate is “moving in the right direction.” The Brazilian real has strengthened 8.4% against the U.S. dollar this year.
“An environment is opening up for us to work with lower interest rates at some point in the future,” he said.
Despite acknowledging that efforts to curb inflation are progressing positively, he warned they should not be prematurely halted, as this could lead to increased costs in achieving disinflation later.
While a weekly central bank survey with private economists shows expectations of rate cuts starting in September, prices on the yield curve point to kick-off in August.
Campos Neto on Monday predicted there would likely be a negative inflation reading in June.
He projected inflation would end this year between 4.5% and 5%, lower than policymakers had initially expected. However, he said core inflation remains high.
The official inflation target for this year is 3.25%.