Rishi Sunak is gearing up to call two dangerous Tory by-elections next month, but has been speculating about when he will be able to hold the seat held by former minister Nadine Dorries Third by-election.
Sunak on Wednesday introduced the legal writ needed to trigger the races at Uxbridge and South Rislip, the former seat of Boris Johnson and the seat held by Johnson’s ally Nigel Adams. Compare. Both formally resigned as MPs this week.
But so far, the Prime Minister has been furious that Doris has refused to follow through on her pledge on Friday to resign immediately as Mid Bedfordshire MP.
Sunak wants all three by-elections to be held on the same day – the political equivalent of ripping off a bandage – so that Pain can be held on the same night in July, before MPs leave for summer holidays.
But Doris, who blamed No. 10 for preventing her advancement to the House of Lords on Johnson’s resignation honors list, told friends she wanted Sunak to suffer.
“She doesn’t mind ruining Rishi’s holiday,” said a friend, suggesting that if Dorries doesn’t formally resign within weeks, the prime minister may have to hold a by-election in the summer or early autumn.
“Rishi hasn’t had a vacation for three and a half years,” retorts an ally of the prime minister. “That doesn’t bother him.” Another senior Conservative official said: “He does think the people of Mid Bedfordshire should be properly represented in this house.”
By-elections in Selby and Uxbridge are expected to be held on July 13 or July 20. Both elections are problematic for Sunak, who is struggling to contain the effects of party strife and rising mortgage rates.
Bookmakers make Tories narrow In Yorkshire, the party is defending a majority of 20,137 seats, but Labor officials say they hope the party can overthrow it.
Yet Labor is unstoppable favorite Win Johnson’s old seat, which the former prime minister won in 2019 with a majority of 7,210 votes.
A by-election in Central Bedfordshire could not be triggered until Doris carried out the formal step of resigning, which would require her to write to the Chancellor following outdated parliamentary procedure.
Doris told friends she would formally resign at a time of her choosing, noting it took Labor MP Rosie Cooper two months to announce her resignation last year.
On Sunday, Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands visited the Dorries constituency and tried to ease relations.
“I salute Nadine,” he said. “She was an MP at 18 and was elected last time with 60 per cent of the vote. She has been a popular MP and has done a fantastic job of keeping children safe with the Online Safety Act and all those things. “
But the relationship between Doris and Sunak was bad. The former culture minister told Talk TV Sunak is a ‘hipster boy with privilege’ who “brutally” blocked her seat in the House of Lords.
The Liberal Democrats are confident of winning the middle bed seat whenever a vote is held and are the bookmakers’ favorite despite Labor insisting it will fight to win the seat, which Dorris won with a 24,664-vote majority in the 2019 general election won the seat.
In private, Labor officials concede that if it becomes clear they cannot win in the Mid Beds, they will “target resources” in seats where they are more likely to beat the Conservatives.
Liberal Democrats deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “This by-election will be a close two-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and the out-of-touch Conservatives.
“We’ve heard from lifelong Conservative and Labor voters in Bedfordshire that they support the Liberal Democrats in sending a message to this government.”
It comes after Labor quietly backed away from a by-election in which the party had no chance of winning, allowing the Liberal Democrats to dominate the anti-Conservative vote.
The unofficial non-aggression pact was rewarded by the Liberal Democrats in Labor’s targeted seats, helping the Center Party win in recent by-elections in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham and Tiverton and Honiton beat the Conservatives to a historic victory.
Both sides deny any formal deal, but the “targeting of resources” effectively means their electoral tactics are aimed at causing maximum damage to Sunak’s party.
The Conservatives think they can hang on at Selby, but admitting the contested “circumstances” sparked by Johnson and his allies quitting the Commons will make victory less assured.
“We’re going to lose these three people, there’s no question about that,” a senior party official said.