Jens Stoltenberg can’t leave just yet — the EU may need him around until it reshuffles its own leaders in Brussels.
That’s the dawning sentiment among NATO allies as the military alliance’s chief nears the end of his term and countries fail to rally around a consensus successor.
The NATO leader’s near decade-long tenure, which has been repeatedly extended, is set to expire this fall. But NATO allies are now gaming out the possibility of prolonging his term yet again until the alliance’s summit in Washington next year, according to diplomats.
The move would, of course, give leaders more time to locate a successor. But it would also push the decision into an EU election year, allowing it to become part of the political jostling over who will run the EU’s main institutions for the next five years.
Like the top NATO job, the EU positions require a geopolitical balancing act. And having four positions to hand out instead of one may help ease those negotiations, allowing countries to back a candidate at NATO, for instance, in exchange for getting their preferred candidate installed atop the European Commission.
It’s not a solution everyone loves.
Asked if European allies would accept the NATO race becoming part of the EU’s top jobs competition, a senior diplomat from Central Europe said: “I am sure for some of us definitely not.”
But, the diplomat added, “for others, yes.”
NATO and the EU: Together at last
Either way, if NATO can’t find a Stoltenberg replacement in the next few weeks, the alliance’s chief is likely to stay on, the diplomats said.
That could make the NATO job another slot to fill as European leaders haggle over the EU’s top posts.
The EU discussion will kick into high gear after the European elections next June, when people vote for a new European Parliament. The results will then influence who runs the EU’s executive, the European Commission, and the European Council, which gathers the bloc’s 27 leaders, as well as the Parliament.
The outcome could also influence who takes over at NATO if all the jobs get rolled into one political discussion.
Some allies don’t mind making these decisions in the same timeframe, but others cautioned against mixing the two worlds.
“We need the most suitable candidate, who can unite [the] transatlantic community, but not setting artificial barriers,” a senior diplomat from Eastern Europe said on Friday. The diplomat underscored that they are “not against” a candidate from the EU. “But why linking? What is the rationale of that?”
The senior Western European diplomat also conceded that they have heard concerns that an extension could “further the complexity” of the situation and make NATO look like “a consolation prize.”
Stoltenberg, for his part, has repeatedly insisted he doesn’t want to stay on, to the point where repeated questions about his future at every press appearance and carefully rehearsed, formulaic answers have taken on a comical quality.
Yet as secretary-general since 2014, the NATO chief has gotten extension after extension.
And in recent weeks, allies have struggled to reach a consensus around any of the lead candidates to replace him, including Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
The indecision stems from allies’ very long list of preferences: many capitals want a former head of government — someone with the stature and experience to navigate tough transatlantic politics, especially if a more isolationist president is elected in the U.S.
A number of capitals also strongly prefer a female candidate. Some EU governments insist that after nearly a decade of a non-EU secretary general, the next chief must come from within the bloc. And for some, it is important for the next chief to come from a country that is serious about defense spending.
Plus, with war raging on the Continent, the job has become far from sensitive — the next secretary-general needs to be someone acceptable to hawks but who big capitals see as sufficiently cool-headed.
Very few leaders meet the criteria. And a few names who could win broad support — such as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte — have said they are not interested.
As a result, the notion of a Stoltenberg extension is now creeping into officials’ public comments.
“If we don’t agree on a candidate, NATO will of course not stand without a secretary general,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Thursday during a NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels. “And therefore, I am of course in favor of an extension.”
And Denmark’s Frederiksen, who was earlier tipped as a leading candidate, said this week that she would back Stoltenberg if he wanted to stay on.
“I am not,” the Danish leader said in a television interview, “on my way to NATO.”
Wilhelmine Preussen contributed reporting.