Military briefing: Will the Wagner insurrection affect the Ukraine war?

Receive Free Ukrainian Military Briefing Updates

we will send you myFT Daily Digest Email summary of the latest information ukrainian military briefing Every morning there is news.

Warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion saved Russia from a possible civil war, regime change and collapse of the war effort – as President Vladimir Putin imagined in 1917 on Saturday morning Revolutionary scene.

But the Russian drama still offers benefits and potential advantages for Ukraine as it seeks to push Russian forces out of the country’s south and east.

“The morale of the Ukrainian army is very high and we are keeping a close eye on the situation in Russia with popcorn,” Vitaly Markov, a Ukrainian National Guard officer serving on the front line, told the Financial Times on Saturday.

Prigorzhin’s threatened coup has come at just the right time for Kiev, which has made only minor territorial gains since its counteroffensive began earlier this month. The disappointment on the battlefield has raised concerns about the ability of the Ukrainian military to destroy Russia’s heavily fortified positions.

Prigozhin’s defection exposed Putin’s vulnerability and drew attention to disagreements with the Russian military machine and possible disloyalty.

Ukrainian officials say the power struggle in Russia has not brought about drastic changes on the front lines, but it has created an opportunity to take advantage of enemy attention and damaged morale.

“Of course we will make the most of this,” said Andrei Chernyak, an official with Ukraine’s military intelligence service. “We will use it to our advantage in the political domain, in the information domain and in the military domain.”

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hannah Malial, said Kiev’s army “launched an offensive in multiple directions simultaneously” on Saturday. “Progress has been made on all fronts.”

There were also unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops had crossed the Antonevsky Bridge near Kherson in southern Ukraine and entered Russian-held territory on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

A senior EU official said Russia’s infighting was “the best counter-offensive we could have hoped for”. Meanwhile, Ukraine can assess Russia’s low morale and use it to its advantage. “

If Prigozhin’s insurgency continues, the Kremlin may withdraw some of its best troops from the Ukrainian front to confront Wagner’s battle-hardened fighters. This will no longer be necessary. Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus, and his troops were returning to base.

But what happened to Wagner is unclear. Wagner officers who did not participate in the mutiny were given fixed-term military contracts. But many other rebels will be banned and likely remain loyal to Prigozhin. Putin may feel he must still deploy more troops closer to home if Wagner or other such militias are still viewed as a potential threat.

If Wagner is dismissed, Russia will lose its most effective military presence in Ukraine. Wagner fighters have fought most of the heavy fighting in Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, Russia’s only major territorial gain since July.

“Wagner was the only successful figure in the Russian invasion in a year,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister. “It had very limited success and was concentrated in a small city, and its tactics were brutal even for Wagner’s men. But they at least achieved something. The Russian army couldn’t do it.”

Zagorodnyuk said Wagner’s death and Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus would also quell criticism of the corruption, incompetence and bureaucracy of Russia’s armed forces, reducing the pressure on the military establishment to address its greatest weaknesses.

“Therefore, the chances of a change in the Russian military system are almost nil.”

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, doubts that the marginalization of Prigozhin’s army will have much impact. It has been withdrawn from the Ukraine operation and is an offensive force at a time when the Russian military is currently in defensive mode and doing relatively well. But Moscow may use Wagner’s rebellion to explain future losses.

“We’re still waiting for Ukraine to start committing to its reserves, which could happen this week. The Russian military will almost certainly attribute any territorial losses this week to what Wagner did, and blaming Wagner could be an effective PR line. “

Nonetheless, Prigozhin captured a command center in Rostov-on-Don with no apparent resistance from Russian forces, or his troops advanced unimpeded to Moscow by several hundred in just one day. km, which will also raise questions about the cohesion and strength of the Russian military. Loyalty of some armies.

“It’s a militia army, and that’s becoming more and more apparent,” said Omar Ashur, a professor of military studies at the Doha Institute. “It makes unity of command very difficult.”

Finally, this weekend’s unrest threatens to sap frontline and civilian support for Russia’s war effort. Prigozhin wields considerable influence through his Telegram channel, and his rebellion pierces two of Putin’s narratives.

On Friday, he directly challenged Putin’s rationale for invading to protect Russian-speaking missions by claiming that Russia started the war because of lies. On Saturday, he showed that Putin’s grip on power is more tenuous than anyone imagined.

“The biggest consequence is that even if the coup does not succeed, the image of a stable system no longer exists,” said Mariia Zolkina of the Foundation for Democracy Initiatives, a Kiev think tank. “The country’s chaotic response shows the real weakness of the authoritarian system. Putin has become a hostage of his own game.”

Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels and Roman Olearchyk in Kiev