A Ukrainian policeman walks past a 24-story building that was partially destroyed by a Russian missile attack in Kiev early on June 24, 2023.
Sergei Subinsky | AFP | Getty Images
Analysts said Ukrainian forces could take advantage of the Wagner Group’s brief armed insurgency, with dislocation in Russia’s military leadership expected to significantly cripple their war effort.
The chaos over the weekend left observers of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine questioning what would happen next. The extraordinary 24-hour period is seen by many as the biggest challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in more than two decades in power.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious leader of Wagner’s private militia, launched an apparent rebellion over the weekend, sending an armored convoy to the Russian capital.
However, the rebellion was abruptly called off on Saturday night, brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. Prigorzhin agreed to de-escalate the situation and ordered the fighters advancing on Moscow to return to their bases.
John Barranco, 2021-2022 U.S. Marine Corps Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, explain For Ukraine, the Wagner rebellion came at an opportune time.
“Whatever Prigozhin’s real motives were, or the outcome of his insurrection, and then the apparent turnaround, a few things remain clear: a great deal of chaos has been sown in areas behind Russia, and ordinary Russian soldiers are How much confidence is left in the military? The leadership is gone,” he said in a blog post.
A spokesman for Russia’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
a war without wagner
Once the military loses confidence in its leadership, Barranco said, morale plummets and the will to fight often follows.
Barranco described Wagner as Russia’s most effective force in Ukraine and said the mercenary group would almost certainly be disbanded and it was unclear whether its fighters would be absorbed into the Russian army.
Tony Brunton, the former British ambassador to Russia, also believes that the Wagner mercenary organization is by far the most effective part of Russia’s military in Ukraine.
“Obviously, Prigozhin is now out (of the war), and maybe Wagner is out of the war, which will weaken Russia’s presence on the battlefield,” Brenton told CNBC’s “European Signposts” on Monday.
Ultimately, after more than 16 months of fighting, the latest developments may offer some kind of opportunity for Ukraine’s military leadership, Barranco said. He said the best chance for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to succeed was to force Russian forces to retreat from their layered combat positions 600 miles across the country.
“Even the most daring of the Ukrainian military leadership is unlikely to envisage an attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, where Russia’s war in Ukraine is being waged, but which is precisely the reason for the Wagner Group’s sudden rebellion. The purpose has been achieved,” Barranco said.
what happened over the weekend
Prigorzhin, a longtime Russian president’s former ally known as “Putin’s cook,” said via Telegram on Saturday that he was prepared to “go all out” against the Russian military and rejected Putin’s crux of the February invasion of Ukraine. reason. 2022.
In return, Putin vowed to crush what he said was an armed mutiny and accused Prigozhin of “treason” in a televised address.
On the evening of June 24, 2023, members of Wagner’s team were preparing to withdraw from the headquarters of the Southern Military District and return to their base in Rostov-on-Don.
Roman Romerhoff | AFP | Getty Images
Before Prigorzhin’s sudden decision to abort the mission, the Wagner rebellion was thought to have occurred within just 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Moscow.
The rebel leader was unceremoniously exiled to Belarus in exchange for calling off the rebellion.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Sunday that things were “moving in the right direction” after discussing events in Russia and Ukraine with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
“We agree that the Russian authorities are weak and that withdrawal from Ukraine is the best option for the Kremlin,” Reznikov tweeted.
However, the War Institute explain The ability of Russian forces to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine has not been “materially affected” by the Wagner bloc’s weekend insurgency.
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023.
Stringer | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The U.S.-based think tank cited sources on both sides saying fighting had reportedly continued across the front, with Russian forces conducting relatively heavy ground attacks in recent days near the devastated city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine . CNBC could not independently verify the reports.
nuclear safety concerns
Asked whether the latest incident would exacerbate concerns about the security of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal, Brenton said there was “almost zero” chance of Ukraine deploying nuclear weapons.
“Don’t worry, I think the odds are still low,” Brenton said. “I don’t think there’s a level of political instability in Russia to the point of a real civil war (or) real disruption of order that you start worrying about nukes getting into the wrong hands.”
However, Brunton noted that Putin has previously indicated that he may be willing to resort to the use of nuclear weapons, a prospect that could be highlighted if a full-scale Russian invasion goes fundamentally wrong.
“It’s not yet fundamentally wrong. If it is, I think there’s a danger of that,” Brenton said. “Hopefully we don’t end up in this situation.”