Tories on course for worst by-election defeat in history in Nadine Dorries’ seat

A by-election triggered by the resignation of Nadine Dorries is set to deliver the Tories the worst such defeat in British history, according to a new poll.

A survey by Opinium found that Rishi Sunak’s party would lose the former cabinet minister’s Mid-Bedfordshire constituency to Labour – despite having a 24,664 majority there.

The poll, commissioned by the opposition party, suggests that Keir Starmer’s outfit would jump ahead of the Tories with 28 per cent of the vote to 24 per cent, while independent candidate Gareth Mackey would come a close third on 19 per cent.

It comes as Westminster braces for a potentially fourth by-election if sanctions against Tory MP Chris Pincher escalate to the level that could trigger a recall petition.

Mr Pincher is accused of drunkenly groping two men and the handling of his case helped bring down Boris Johnson’s government. He denies sexual misconduct allegations but has said he has “embarrassed” himself.

But he remains and MP and the Commons standards committee is now expected to release their report into his behaviour by the end of the month.

If he is suspended from the Commons for more than 10 days then constituents in his Tamworth seat could trigger a by-election by getting 10 per cent of its electorate to sign a recall petition. The provision is yet to be used in practice and MPs who become vulnerable to a recall challenge have tended to resign on their own accord.

Tamworth has the potential to cause yet another political headache for Rishi Sunak’s party. The area been a marginal seat in recent political memory and was last held by Labour in 2005, though it has since swung hard to the Tories.

It would add to a long list of difficult defences for the Conservatives, who have been at rock bottom in the polls since Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget last year.

As well as the expected contest in Ms Dorries Bedfordshire seat the Tories are also defending Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and West Ruislip in west London, and that of Tory MP Nigel Adams in Selby.

Ms Dorries is yet to formally resigning as an MP meaning the expected by-election in her seat does not yet have a date. The contests in west London and Selby are scheduled for 20 July.

The former culture secretary’s mid-Bedfordshire seat has been held by the Tories since 1931 and a defeat there would represent a major shock to the system for Rishi Sunak’s party.

The latest poll for the former culture secretary’s seat has the Lib Dems – who consider the seat winnable – coming in fourth with 15 per cent of the vote.

This would represent a disappointing result of the liberals, who have had a string of strong by-election results against the Tories in rural and suburban areas. Right-wing outfit Reform UK is on course to win 10 per cent of the vote, coming fifth.

Opinion polling of individual constituencies is notoriously difficult, however, and the position of the parties could shift in an intensive ground campaign.

A Lib Dem spokesperson accused Labour of “playing fast and loose with their figures” and said the poll findings “bare no resemblance to what we’re seeing across the thousands of actual doors we’ve knocked on”.

They added: “The choice at this election is clear, people can vote for change by supporting Lib Dem Emma Holland-Lindsay or get another Tory MP backing Rishi Sunak. Labour’s London Councillor can’t win, a vote for him is a vote to strengthen this chaotic Conservative Government.”

The result predicted by the poll would outstrip the Lib Dems’ overturning of a 24,239 Tory majority in Tiverton and Honiton, at the time the worst defeat.

Peter Kyle, the Labour MP who is running the party’s campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, said: “The community here is fleeing the Tories but they haven’t fully chosen their destination yet. There’s no complacency here for Labour but it’s just a massive, unprecedented and historic opportunity.”

Adam Drumming, an associate director of Opinium, said: “The Conservatives are holding onto just under half of their 2019 vote and losing big chunks to a mix of Labour, Lib Dems, Reform and the local independent while Labour gains some from the Tories and Lib Dems to just put them ahead.”